Surjit S Bhalla: OBC quotas: Blind Oversight

IT DOESN'T MATTER

There is no moral, philosophical, or economic basis for OBC reservations in colleges or employment.

The dictionary defines "oversight" as "an unintentional omission or mistake", also "watchful care or management; supervision". Regardless of which definition one adopts, the oversight committee on the implementation of the new reservation policy in higher educational institutions (hereafter the Moily report) did not undo any previous "oversights". The most important error of commission the new reservation policy the Moily committee was not even asked to correct""namely, the share of the population of the other backward castes (OBCs) in India. The original (before the oversight) policy recommendation was to allot the OBCs only half as many reservations as their share in the population, i.e. their share in the population was assumed to be 52 per cent and the proportion of seats allotted was 27 per cent. In reality, the share of the non-Muslim OBCs in the population, according to the government's own NSSO data for 1999-00, was only 32 per cent. Thus, simple maths suggests that the reservations for the OBCs would mean that almost every OBC high school graduate would be guaranteed a position in college. In 1999-00 there were 12.9 million college seats and 3.94 million OBCs (ages 19-25 years) had graduated from high school; 27 per cent reservation would mean that an OBC will have a 90 per cent chance of gaining college admission.

The only "governance" organisation left in the country, the Supreme Court, had asked the government to answer the simple question: how many OBCs are there, 32 per cent or 52 per cent? I do not know if the Moily report constitutes contempt of court; but if it does not even mention the fact that the government's OBC population estimate is fictitious, then what constitutes contempt?

But this is not the only oversight that remained an oversight with the UPA government's report. This Congress-led government ascended to power on the claim (promise?) that it believed in social justice, secularism and inclusive growth. So far, it has just been cheap talk. The sad reality, and one which merits discussion and involvement by the Supreme Court, is the discrimination faced by Muslims. In 1999-00, the Muslim youth (age 19 to 25 years, the category for whom the reservation policy is relevant) were the worst off among all the social groups in India, even behind the SC/STs, and considerably behind the non-Muslim OBCs. In 1999-00, only 6.3 per cent of this cohort was in college (and/or high school), compared to 7.6 per cent for the OBCs, and 7.1 per cent for the SC/STs (unless otherwise stated, all data are from the NSSO large sample surveys for 1983 and 1999-00).

The NSSO data also shed light on the job situation for the Indian youth. The Muslim youth have more than twice the unemployment rate of the OBCs, 15.9 per cent, versus only 7.4 per cent for the OBCs and 7.7 per cent for SC/STs. Note that this is the rate for 19-25-year-olds, not for the entire labour force. This group is likely to have a higher unemployment rate than the average, because of frictional unemployment, looking for the first job, etc. What is relevant about this data is the much higher level of unemployment of the Muslim youth.

Since the above data are for a point in time, it tells us very little of the rate of progress of education in India. It could be that Muslims started off from a lower base, and have increased their educational attainment faster than the average Indian. This is not the case; the Muslim youth have increased college attendance by 50 per cent between 1983 and 1999-00, compared to an 80 per cent increase for the average Indian youth. Data for the OBCs are not available for 1983; the rate of expansion of college attendance for SC/STs between 1983 and 1999-00 was over 115 per cent.

The above data strongly support the conclusion that there is no moral, philosophical, or economic basis for reservations for the OBCs in either college education or employment. Indeed, there is no case for any affirmative action at all for the OBCs, especially if a much more deserving community, the Muslims, are so far behind even the presumed worst off Indian, the SC/STs. If there is any social group that is deserving of affirmative action in India, it is the Muslims, not the SC/STs and definitely not the OBCs.

It could be argued that "culturally" the Muslims do not have as great a demand for education as the Hindus, and therefore their rate of progress has been lower. But a perusal of data for other Muslim countries suggests that this is not the case. Every (predominantly) Muslim country has a higher rate of improvement than India, excepting Indonesia, Malaysia, and Bangladesh. The first two have considerably higher levels of educational attainment: 5 and 6.9 years for population above 15 years of age. Bangladesh is a real outlier, at least according to the international data compiled by economists Barro and Lee. In Pakistan, there has been an 84 per cent increase in the average level of education, almost twice the rate of increase of the average Indian Muslim.

The net result is that, all things considered, there is only one community deserving of any affirmative action in education and employment in India""the Muslims. There are no data to substantiate that the relatively privileged OBCs should get any additional benefits; indeed, the data suggest that the central government should make an all-out effort to bring the Muslims on a par with at least the SC/STs before any passage of legislation for any other community.

ssbhalla@gmail.com