The need for clean energy and sustainable transport will only be addressed successfully if traffic safety is also simultaneously addressed.
The consequences of global warming are taxing the minds of politicians and industrialists all over the world. Transport contributes directly to about 20 per cent of greenhouse gases and the great majority of that comes from road traffic. Furthermore, in cities the exhaust from vehicles leads to thousands of early deaths each year due to respiratory and other diseases. So making transport sustainable is an important element in energy policies in every country. But what about the more immediate pollution in all our everyday lives, the risks of death and injury on our streets?
In the world at present there are around 850 million cars, trucks and buses. Rough estimates suggest that there are also 300-400 million motorcycles (including scooters and mopeds). No one really knows how many bicycles there are, but it is likely to be over a billion. This year about 1.4 million people will die in traffic accidents. By 2020 the total will be 2 million. Of these deaths, 90 per cent will be in developing countries, only 10 per cent will be in the industrialised world.
In India, over 110,000 people will die on the roads this year, and by 2020 that number will likely reach 200,000 unless radical changes are made. What is more important is that for every death there are at least four survivors with long-term disabling injuries, brain or spinal cord damage, or major loss of function in the joints of the legs, making walking extremely difficult. The economic losses from road traffic injuries currently amount to 1-2 per cent of GDP.
Traffic deaths in India are growing at some 8 per cent annually. Of those deaths, around 70 per cent are of vulnerable road users, pedestrians, cyclists and riders of scooters and motorcycles. Although car ownership is growing very fast, motorised two-wheelers will continue to dominate our traffic for the next decade.
We must recognise that business as usual on the roads is not an option. Congestion is an enormous economic cost, as is traffic injury. How can we move towards sustainable traffic safety for Indian conditions?
In cities developing an effective bus service is a high priority. Dedicated bus lanes are required, fares must be low and reasonable comfort provided. There is only so much road space. It has to be used better. Separation of pedestrians and cyclists from motorised traffic on arterial roads has already started in Delhi and should be greatly expanded.
Controlling speed is fundamental for both safety and environmental reasons. Almost all cars today are grossly over-engineered. Because they are capable of 160 kmph or more they are too heavy, thirsty, polluting, noisy and more damaging to road surfaces than need be. And because cars are capable of high speeds we want to use that capability. If you wear a seat belt your chances of dying in a 20 kmph crash are close to zero, the chances of dying increase to almost 100 per cent at 100 kmph. If you are a pedestrian hit by a car at 30 kmph or less you have a 90 per cent chance of surviving. If you are hit at 45kmph or more, your chances of surviving are less than 50 per cent.
In cities speed can be controlled by having roundabouts, chicanes, speed humps, pedestrian refuges, and other traffic calming techniques. For commercial vehicles speed governors are appropriate. Vehicle tax, parking and fuel pricing policies to discourage over-powered, polluting vehicles are now actively used in many countries very aggressively.
There is a need for a small urban car to meet the specific conditions of the megacities of India. The general design parameters should be for a small, lightweight, fuel-efficient, low-emission, two-person car, with a top speed of around 65 kmph. Emissions and fuel use could almost match that of motorcycles.
There are regulatory issues to be addressed. The word ‘car’ is applied to a whole range of vehicles, from the Nano and the Smart car to a BMW 7 series or a Range Rover. With minor variations the same safety requirements are applied across the whole range of cars, SUVs and, in most jurisdictions, to pick-up trucks. An implicit assumption is that all cars can be used everywhere. If a car is designed for the conditions of urban India then the priorities for safety in its design are different from the requirements specified in the standards promulgated by ECE or other regulatory bodies in the world. Given the traffic mix in urban India and a specified upper limit of urban cars to a speed of say 65 kmph, then the standard crash performance requirements for conventional cars are not necessarily appropriate for a city car. The prime safety concern must be pedestrian (and VRU) protection. Careful control of the front exterior geometry and compliance of the structures which will be struck by pedestrians can provide major benefits. European standards exist for exterior design to reduce pedestrian injuries, but they are not as effective as they could be. This is one area of vehicle design where the Indian vehicle industry could be a world leader.
It would be useful to set up an independent group of experts to question this ‘one size fits all’ view of safety standards for cars in the context of vehicles appropriate for India’s megacities. To agree on the appropriate safety standards for small, light-weight, low-emission, low-speed, urban cars would bring clarity to a muddled subject and provide an incentive for the development of such vehicles.
In moving towards a low carbon economy, local, state and national governments must produce the appropriate incentives and penalties. Preferential treatment for zero and low-emission, low-speed vehicles, extensive traffic calming schemes, disincentives for high-speed, high-fuel-use, high-polluting vehicles are examples.
At the same time, new solutions for new traffic management techniques for traffic which is predominantly motorcycles and pedestrians need to be researched. The use of safety and environmental audits for governments is an important mechanism in evaluating new road developments, traffic management schemes and vehicle technologies. Building that capacity to create a forgiving road system is the immediate challenge for government.
Thus energy use, climate change, congestion and traffic safety are intimately linked. If roads are not safe for pedestrians and bicyclists, use of public transport will be avoided by people who can afford to use personal vehicles. Sustainable energy and sustainable transport will only be addressed successfully if traffic safety is also addressed. You cannot have one without the other.
The author is Emeritus Professor, University of Birmingham
