T N Ninan: Above our weight

WEEKEND RUMINATIONS

Back in the early 1990s, China's Deng Xiaoping spelt out, in 24 characters, what should be China's foreign and military policy. Deng said: "Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership." Later, another clause was added: "Make some contribution". The core of Deng's thought was that China should keep its head down, until its long-term power had been built up ("hide our capacities, bide our time") "" at which point, presumably, the country would assert itself. Some would argue that the time for assertion seems to have come, given how China has begun flexing its muscles. It has used a combination of financial leverage, diplomatic manoeuvring and military aid to grab natural resources all over Africa and in our neighbourhood, sometimes walking off with gas contracts even though Indian firms bid more. In the military sphere, it has undertaken a spectacular demonstration of its ability to launch and operate killer satellites in space "" sending out a clear signal that has registered in Washington. And in the operation of its currency policy and sovereign wealth funds, it has demonstrated a "don't care what you think" cockiness that tells its own story.

This careful sequencing of the accumulation of power before it is demonstrated in action, contrasts with India's preferences and behaviour. Since Nehru's days immediately after Independence, we have sought to box above our weight. For a time, it paid dividends (of a kind) "" India figured as a peacemaker in some of the major international crisis-points, be it Korea or Cambodia. And of course it was a prime mover in creating the non-aligned movement, in pushing for de-colonisation, and such like. Interestingly, China has studiously stayed away from, or kept a low profile at, multilateral talk-shops "" unlike some of our diplomats who see themselves as leaders in such forums because they can speak good English, and get pulled into drafting sessions because they can write good English. It did not dawn on us that, when it really counted (like the trade deals), we came away from the big GATT conferences with little to show. In reality, therefore, India made the noise while China enjoyed the substance of power "" like a seat in the Security Council, and being counted as one of the nuclear haves.

By the 1970s, the world was getting tired of India's hectoring and took less and less notice, even as the country seemed to be sinking into a morass of economic under-performance and political confusion, both signalling a lack of national direction. Slowly, the reality that we don't count dawned on our leaders; so we stopped sounding off on all and sundry and began focusing on national interests. When the 1980s gave us some initial successes, we did Round 2 of premature posturing "" remember the talk of a blue-water navy that could operate as far afield as Australia "" only for the economic crisis of 1990-91 to give us another cold shower. Now, with some real economic success, the achievements of Indians overseas and serious international interest in the India story, our chests are out again in a fresh round of premature triumphalism. We threaten cricket walk-outs, claim to be a technological superpower though barely 2 per cent of the population uses the internet, and bracket ourselves with China economically though ours is only a third of China's GDP.

Perhaps we have starved egos that are hungry for some external feeding. Perhaps it is merely that Indians are voluble and argumentative, while the Chinese are less "scrutable". Whatever the explanation, it might be good idea to learn something from Deng and keep our heads down (and mouths shut) for a while longer.