| In the last three calendar years, 2005-07, the Congress has been able to form the government in four states following assembly elections: Assam, Manipur, Goa and Haryana. That embarrassing list makes comment superfluous. But if you want to know, those states between them have a total of 28 Lok Sabha seats. In the same three years, the party has found others forming post-election governments in Bihar, Jharkhand, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh "" states with Lok Sabha seats totalling 283, or more than half the total. |
| That absurd 10:1 ratio may change somewhat when elections are held during 2008 in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan "" in all of which the rival BJP is said to be on the back foot. But even if the Congress were to win all three and with luck retain Delhi, the party's tally post-2004 will have been pretty dismal. That is the record with which Sonia Gandhi will lead the Congress into the Lok Sabha elections in 2009 "" a year in which there will also be assembly elections in states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Interestingly, when the NDA controlled the central government, the Congress ruled in most of the states. If history is to repeat the cycle, the portents are clear. |
| Why has the aam aadmi deserted the party, you might ask. There is more than one reason: in Himachal Pradesh, it is said to have been large-scale corruption. In Gujarat, the party had done nothing to unseat a popular incumbent. In many states, the party machinery barely exists "" as in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, internal dissension is serious and longlasting. In Uttarakhand, the state government simply did not perform well enough. One can go on. |
| Faced with this situation, what does Sonia Gandhi do? She leads from the back mostly "" invisible much of the time and operating through a series of courtiers who act as communications bridges. That in itself is not wrong; most generals leave it to the majors and colonels to fight on the frontlines while they plot strategy. But Indian politics is also a touch and feel business. So it is not enough for the party president to emerge at election time to hold a few rallies that attract curious crowds, but achieve little else. It becomes worse when defeat is announced, because Ms Gandhi relapses into stony silence except in closed-door party conclaves. Then, until the next elections, she is once again ensconced in her Delhi camp. Surrounded by sycophants, and isolated by security protocols, it would be surprising if she got a feel of the real situation. |
| So, first and foremost, Sonia Gandhi has to realise what no courtier will tell her "" that Rahul Gandhi is not going to make a difference in the next 17 months. Second, she must see that Indira-style giveaways and subsidies don't win votes. And third, she has to accept that her party's ability to form the government in 2004 was a gift handed to her when the BJP dumped the DMK at the last minute, thereby losing for the NDA all 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu. The victory had nothing therefore to do with the unpopularity of the "India Shining" campaign, or the magic of the "aam aadmi" slogan. |
| These realisations must spur three decisions: make the Congress less royalist in orientation so that it builds real strength down the line, lets natural leaders emerge, and allows them to forge a modern political machine; figure out what really works on the economic front, and make a noise about the government's achievements instead of being embarrassed about record growth rates; and choose the right partners for 2009. How about Mayawati? |
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
