T N Ninan: Disruption, then revival?

Will the macroeconomic numbers for the April-June quarter, to be announced at the end of this month, see a reversal of the slowdown?

The economy began slowing down over a year ago. The slowdown accelerated, if you will, after the November demonetisation, if one is to judge by the very modest 5.6 per cent increase in gross value added (GVA) during the January-March quarter—down from 8.7 per cent a year earlier. Over the same four quarters, growth in the manufacturing sector slumped to 5.3 per cent, from 12.7 per cent in January-March 2016, while construction activity contracted. The big question therefore is whether the numbers for the April-June 2017 quarter, to be announced at the end of this month, will see a reversal