T N Ninan: Flat-lined exports are impeding India's economic momentum

The Modi govt's recent focus on protecting the home market through tariff hikes is unlikely to help exporters; whether it will serve the cause of import substitution remains to be seen

Back in 2011-12, India’s goods exports – excluding mineral fuels (oil and coal) because their sharp price swings distort the picture – totalled $249 billion. Five years later, in 2016-17, the figure was virtually unchanged at $243 billion. The highest level that the figure reached in the intervening years was $253 billion, in 2014-15. This has been a lost half-decade for India’s exporters — yet the subject has scarcely figured in any economic debate. The current year finally sees the prospect of some change, with a bit of an export surge in recent months, but the full year’s growth may