If every opinion poll says the Congress and allies will do badly in forthcoming elections, the reasons are both numerous and obvious: sustained high inflation, the economic slowdown, macroeconomic mismanagement that has risked instability through a sovereign downgrade, and scandals to suit every pocket. Crazy tax and other rules have frightened away foreigners and Indian investors alike, while the failure to undertake serious reform has been scandalous. Adding insult to injury are counterproductive new laws such as on land acquisition, because of the scope it provides for delays and rent-seeking. Before that there was the law on the right to education, including as it did regressive provisions that discourage if not disable private educational establishments.
Also, there is the widespread perception of a power vacuum at the heart of the government, and that strings are pulled by the party boss or bosses. The result is an undeniable diminution of the office of the prime minister - which is not just a subject of much tut-tutting and head-shaking but also a potentially dangerous development. There is, finally, a suspicion that, deep within the bowels of this government, lies extreme cynicism - about corruption, about craven crony capitalism, about buying votes at the cost of economic progress, about doing and saying whatever it takes to get past the day's angry headlines. Millions, therefore, will look back on this period with not just disappointment but perhaps even anger.
A government that has in its ranks some stellar and some not-so-stellar lawyers - some of them too clever by half - does not need your columnist to make a case for the defence. The strange thing, though, is that there is a case for the defence, if someone in the benighted government would have the gumption to make it. Look at the obvious ones: the Maoists are on the run (no more the old talk of 160 districts being affected), and there is less unrest in the Kashmir valley than at any point since 1989. Internal security is, therefore, a good-news story. External security had been neglected for years (resulting in a depleted air force, an ageing submarine fleet, ancient fighting ships, and an army without some essential wherewithal to fight), but this government has spent more money and effort than any previous one to bolster the country's armaments and defence capability. It has been slow going, and is still work in progress, which is why the Chinese can poke a finger in our eye whenever they want, but much ground has been covered.
The country is ahead of the curve on achieving several Millennium Development Goals by the United Nations' target year of 2015. Some have already been achieved, like halving the extent of poverty since 1990, achieving universal primary education and halving the percentage of people without access to safe drinking water. Others will fall marginally short, like halving the population without access to sanitation facilities. And the maternal mortality rate will have fallen by a creditable 68 per cent in 25 years, but will fall short of the target of 75 per cent reduction. Some targets will be missed by a mile, but most indicators (including levels of hunger) show substantial improvement.
Meanwhile, agriculture has enjoyed record growth and impressive crop diversification, so that more money jingles in rural pockets - of cultivators and labourers alike. Then there is infrastructure, which is a patchy story but which has improved with record investment. The country now has better roads and airports, access to telecommunications has grown at lightning speed, and there is a dramatic increase in power generation capacity. These and others like them are considerable achievements. One suspects, though, that the operative reality will be what Mark Antony said of Julius Caesar, "The evil that men do…."
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
