British diplomats tell you that Gordon Brown has a great relationship with the Prime Minister—the two former finance ministers are able to chat freely about economic issues that their aides find difficulty comprehending. Thaksin Shinawatra, the buccaneering businessman who became Thai prime minister, also had a great relationship with Manmohan Singh, often turning to him for advice. And George W Bush said the other day that Dr Singh had a calming influence on him! We must expect, therefore, that Dr Singh will be in his element this weekend, when the leaders of the G-20 meet in Washington (the G-20 itself may of course be seen as an over-rated idea, before long). Dr Singh’s scholarly background, his direct understanding of global economic issues and his rectitude have stood him and the country in good stead in various international fora.
Why is this important? Because if you think forward to next year and the possible candidates for prime minister, it becomes obvious that almost all of them are blind-sided by economic issues—which, increasingly, are the real stuff of diplomacy. John McCain’s weakness on this score was an important reason for his losing to Barack Obama. Our political process does no such winnowing because it is parties that elect prime ministers, not voters.
Indian diplomats say that the Prime Minister is a reliable performer in summit meetings. He reads his briefs and does his homework, but also likes to do his own thinking. “Don’t tell me what to say, tell me what I should know,” he once retorted after reading what his officials had prepared for him. He speaks softly, but says his piece nevertheless, without causing offence. Sometimes, though, he is still the cautious bureaucrat: At a summit meeting with a western leader, when he responded cautiously to a proposal, his counterpart reassured him with a smile: “Don’t worry, it is not a trap!”
When the history of Dr Singh’s tenure is written, his foreign policy successes will be seen as going beyond the Indo-US nuclear deal. His formulation on Kashmir (“I have no mandate to change borders, but we can make borders irrelevant”), became the obvious solution once he articulated it. He has pushed hard for one free trade agreement after another, and if he can now help re-shape the architecture of global financial regulation, it is not a bad list of achievements to take home.
There are those who have a problem with his diplomatic style. Even his officials were taken aback when Dr Singh told President Bush at their last meeting that the people of India loved him. Arun Shourie has printed on the cover of his latest book on Indo-Chinese relations a sequence of telling pictures that show Dr Singh bowing low before a ramrod straight Hu Jintao as they shake hands. Even as finance minister, when Dr Singh threw a dinner for Michel Camdessus, who as managing director of the International Monetary Fund had been more than helpful during the foreign exchange crisis of 1991, Dr Singh kept calling him “Sir”, which jarred on at least some Indian ears. All this is part of a personal style that stoops to conquer. He has perfected the art of effusive praise in order to disarm his interlocutor, but his personal humility is sometimes taken too far, especially when he should be thinking more of his country’s position and standing.
It helps, of course, that India’s own rising graph supports any leader speaking on its behalf. It is far more difficult to conjure up winning tricks from a weak hand—as Nehru did half a century ago. Still, Dr Singh has shown that he does well when not hobbled, as he has been on the domestic stage.
