One of the blunders in India's recent diplomacy was the decision to team up with China in the climate change negotiations that took place at Copenhagen in 2009. India got little if anything out of the meeting while China, which was facing a lot of heat because of its carbon emissions, deflected the pressure by making common cause with India. So it is a matter of relief that the Modi government is preparing to shift position in future negotiations, and to keep a distance from China. Those who have been brought up on the Chindia misnomer are prone to think of the two largest and most populous countries in Asia as belonging to a common club - of two rising powers. The truth is that the two countries are now placed vastly differently, and especially so on carbon gas emissions.
Three sets of numbers tell the story. China is by far the largest emitter of carbon gases, accounting for about 19 per cent of the world total. India is way behind at seven per cent. When it comes to emissions per head, China at 7.2 tonnes per person per year is way ahead of the world average of 4.5 tonnes, and ahead of even the European Union's number of about 6.8 tonnes. In sharp contrast, India is at a lowly 1.7 tonnes - not the same ballpark at all. Finally, when it comes to emissions intensity - that is, per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) - China once again is a bigger sinner. Its emissions comfortably exceed its share of world GDP, while India's share of global emissions is broadly in line with its share of GDP (calculated on purchasing power parity basis). Since China's numbers are problematic on every score, while India's numbers are unobjectionable, it makes no sense at all to make common cause with China on this issue.
That does not mean that India will get away lightly at the next round of climate change talks. In the 1997 Kyoto accord on cutting emissions, the emerging markets and poor countries were not asked to make any emissions cuts. That was because the rich countries were responsible historically for the bulk of emissions. Also, in the early 1990s they accounted for about two-thirds of all emissions, and the developing world for most of the rest. In the quarter century since then, the tables have been turned because of the rapid economic growth of not just China and India but also of much of Africa and countries like Brazil. Now it is the emerging economies that account for nearly 60 per cent of emissions; the rich countries' share is barely a third (international aviation and shipping companies account for the balance). So even if, say, the European Union agrees to halve its emissions, the saving would be eaten up by India as its economy continues to grow. Global emissions would not fall, though they need to.
The Europeans are unlikely to accept this. Yet India cannot accept a cap on its emissions because that would put a cap on future GDP growth. At the negotiations that take place next year for the post-Kyoto arrangement (beyond 2020), India can escape the heat only by demonstrating that it is seriously following a low-carbon growth strategy. Perhaps the argument will have to shift from emissions per head (which India has stressed so far) to emissions intensity, that is, per unit of GDP. If the rich countries reduce emissions, and consequently the global average on emissions per unit of GDP drops from the present 4.5 tonnes, India would be obliged to ensure that its own emissions intensity also falls. That would not put a cap on growth, though it may raise the cost of growth. More important, each country's action to reduce emissions would put pressure on other countries to do likewise. In other words, win-win.
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