TCA Srinivasa-Raghavan: An insight into Rahul's mind

LINE & LENGTH

The hypothetical syllogism is a powerful tool, used only by the cleverest politicians.

Had someone from my family been prime minister in 1992, said Rahul Gandhi, who, in all probability, is the next Congress prime minister, the Babri Masjid would still be standing. Or words to that effect.

Some people were annoyed by his remark. Others, like Congress members, were embarrassed, and one of their flustered spokesmen said it reflected the ethos of the party. Most people, however, quietly thought to themselves, "Oh, dear, what a silly thing to say!"

Actually, they were all wrong. I think Rahul Gandhi has showed an amazing grasp of formal propositional logic. That sort of statement, in fact, even has a name. It is called a "hypothetical syllogism", which is a special type of syllogism. It relies on conditional statements such as "if this, then surely that", or "if not this, then surely not that", "if this, then surely not that" and so on.

What must have made it attractive to Mr Gandhi would have been his certain knowledge that it can also be used to make counter-factual inferences. In plain English, that means presenting the audience with a conclusion that cannot be proved.

The trick is to start with a false premise and end by saying something that is seen as being perhaps true. For that reason, by the way, it is used extensively by wives against their husbands.

Clever politicians also use it, however. For instance, they say, "If you had voted me to power, I would have bought you an island in the Caribbean." (Note that the emphasis is on "had". They don't say "if you vote me to power, I will buy you an island in the Caribbean.") However, most politicians are not aware that they are using one of the oldest forms of confidence trick.

The beauty of a hypothetical syllogism lies in its ability to confuse and obfuscate. For instance, if A implies "not" B, and if "not" B implies C, we must conclude that if C, then "not" A. Hence the formulation: if someone from the Gandhi family had been prime minister in 1992 (that is, A), the Babri Masjid would not have been destroyed (that is, not B). The rest is left to your imagination, which is very clever because the logical steps remain intact.

The central point about hypothetical syllogisms, as you may have noticed by now, is that they lead to hypothetical conclusions. Thus, I could say that if Mr Doe is a Communist, I will eat my hat. But since no one knows whether he is one, I run no risk of having to eat my hat. Nevertheless, by my willingness to eat my hat, I have made it clear that I don't think Mr Doe is a Communist.

But this is not the sort of thing that you would expect the fellows from the BJP to grasp at first (or even last) go. Hence their loud protests. But never mind those losers. Let us keep our attention on Mr Gandhi, who would surely benefit if he were to be reminded of some recent history. Armed with it, he can amaze us even more.

After all, if his political style is going to be based on hypothetical syllogisms""e.g. if I had wanted, I could have been prime minister in 1991""he has to be prepared to answer some awkward questions from nasty people. These questions resemble hypothetical syllogisms, but are not invariably so.

For example:
1. If my great grandfather had not been Gandhiji's favourite, he would not have become prime minister in 1946 (because 19 of the 20 voting members voted against him).

2. If he had not become prime minister, India would not have approached the UN over Kashmir and thus not got into a continuing mess.

3. If he had not become prime minister, there would have been no Aavadi Congress and therefore the "Commanding Heights" resolution, which has cost the Indian economy so dear. (In Tamil it is also called the 'A davadi' Congress because adavadi means to bamboozle.)

4. If my great-grandfather had not pampered Krishna Menon, there would not have been a war with China and the humiliating defeat from which we have still not recovered.

5. If my grandmother had not been such a political cynic, banks would not have been nationalised and our financial system would not have been a prisoner of the Communists.

6. If my uncle had not thought that my family has a divine right to rule, there would not have been the Emergency of 1975, which nearly ended democracy in India.

7. If there had been no rigging in the 1986 election in Kashmir, incidentally when my father was prime minister, there would have been no terrorism there.

8. If my father had not panicked in 1989, there would have not been any Congress-led shilanyas at Ayodhya, which legitimised the BJP's platform and it would never have come to power nine years later.

9 If the Congress party had not been such a royalist party, I would not be its candidate for prime ministership.
And so on.

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