Thailand goes to polls

Thailand goes to the polls today to elect a new government replacing the military junta's caretaker government. Coming 15 months after the September 2006 coup, there is intense political drama involving rigging, vote-buying, scandals and a convoluted political map wherein the junta-backed National Legislative Assembly (NLA) continues to churn out legislation, despite democratic norms.

An unprecedented 2.9 million absentee votes were cast last weekend, more than the total of the last five elections together. The 65-million nation (46 million eligible voters) is at another turning point in its tumultuous political dispensation which has witnessed 18 coups and 17 Constitutions since the 1932 revolution, which abolished absolute monarchy and led to the first Constitution.

Ironically, as Thailand celebrates 75 years of its first Constitution and the 80th birthday of long-serving monarch Bhumibhol Adulyadej this year, there is little cheer. The political landscape has become a "them" and "us" battle "" between junta supporters and ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Caught in the quagmire of acrimonious cross-fighting between politicians, military and bureaucracy, is a weary electorate and a tired economy.

The current impasse can be attributed to the 2006 coup led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, which overthrew the elected government of "self-made" telecommunications tycoon and politician Thaksin, a colourful and controversial figure. His Thai Rak Thai, TRT (Thais Love Thai) won a landslide victory in 2001 and was re-elected in 2005.

Much of Thaksin's goodwill had dissipated as he began his second term. The self-styled CEO PM's ("a country is a company") heavy-handed style and blatant disregard for institutional checks (such as circumventing the 1997 Constitution "" "Peoples Charter" "" for his own ends) found voracious critics.

Thaksin remains popular in the rural heartland due to his populist policies "" 'Thaksinomics' was welcomed in the aftermath of the 1997-98 economic crisis. TRT's 30 baht (85 cents) health-care coverage of every Thai, one million baht revolving fund ($30,000) for every village and moratorium on agricultural debt won over the countryside.

Heady with popularity and seemingly invincible, Thaksin committed a series of high-profile blunders "" a perceived disregard of the revered monarch, unaccounted killings in the 2004 "war on drugs" and extra-judicial killings in Thailand's Malay-Muslim southern provinces (Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani) in 2005. Political discontent came to a head when a "rich" Thaksin tried to get richer 'unfairly' "" through his $1.87 billion tax-free sale of his Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in 2006.

In 2005, Sondhi Limthongkul, ex-Thaksin crony-turned-foe, tapped into the anger and started a campaign to "return power to the King" seeking the monarch's intervention to appoint a new government, under the 1997 Constitution (Section 7). Twenty three peoples' organisations jumped on the bandwagon, creating a disparate coalition "" the People's Alliance for Democracy. Thaksin responded by a call to "return power to the people".

In the snap elections of April 2006, boycotted by the opposition, Thaksin garnered 57 per cent of the votes cast. The Election Commission announced another election in October 2006, with Thaksin as caretaker. As Thailand readied itself, the military "piggy-backed on the anti-Thaksin movement" and tanks rolled into Bangkok, 16 years after the last coup (1991) "" the longest period when the military stayed out of politics.

The junta, which came promising to redress Thaksin's misdeeds with his exit and exile, stands discredited today. It has topped Thaksin's blunders "" with allegations of corruption and maladministration, misuse of martial law and emergency, a Thaksin witch-hunt, clampdown on media, 18,000 websites blocked and a 35 per cent defence budget increase. The last straw was the imposition of a controversial military-backed 18th Constitution.

The junta's misadventures started soon after the coup with the abrogation of the 1997 Constitution (16th), regarded as a "Peoples Charter" and replacing it with an interim Constitution (17th). Subsequently it foisted the 18th Constitution in the first-ever referendum in Thai history in August 2007.

The referendum gave little choice though "" if disapproved, the junta retained the right to choose any of the previous 17 Constitutions. Cornered, half the electorate participated and gave a narrow approval (57 per cent).

The new Constitution is pro-military "" including an amnesty to coup leaders, a half-appointed Senate, politicisation of the judiciary and a two-term limit on the PM, which effectively blocks Thaksin's return. The junta also engineered a ban on TRT and its top 111 officials on grounds of poll fraud through the military-appointed Constitutional Tribunal.

What the junta did not anticipate was its increasing unpopularity "" and Thaksin's unexpected rise, literally from the ashes. Cashing on his personal popularity and perceived illegality of the coup, Thaksin, the consummate political persona made several brilliant political moves "" a feisty website on himself, takeover of Manchester City (and inducting three Thai players) which played to national pride in football-crazy Thailand.

The most important is his proxy role in reincarnating his disbanded party TRT as Palang Prachachon Party (People's Power Party, PPP) led by a rightwing politician Samak Sundaravej, who openly calls himself a Thaksin "nominee".

Political melodrama has reached a crescendo "" PPP saying a vote for the coup-supporting Democrats is a vote for the junta, and a vote for PPP, a vote for Thaksin. Ex-TRT members are fielding family and friends. Charges and counter-charges are flying around "" PPP leaked classified documents of the junta's plot to destabilise PPP (thrown out by the military-appointed Election Commission).

PPP is accused of VCD distribution in northeast Thailand, where Thaksin is seemingly imploring people to vote for PPP "" implying Thaksin is active in the elections, which he is not supposed to.

Thaksin is advocating a National Reconciliation government which his spokesperson claims echoes King Bhumibhol's calls for unity. Incidentally, opinion polls show PPP has a narrow lead.

The elections offer little by way of programmes and policies. Some candidates have questionable antecedents. Samak Sundaravej supported the 1976 violent clampdown on leftists. The Democrats promise to minimise the military's role, which rings hollow. Smaller parties add to the confusion and may hitch their fortunes with the winner.

The current NLA, instead of being dissolved, continues to legislate and pass controversial bills. On NLA's radar is an Internal Security Bill which will resurrect the military's role behind-the-scenes. Many post-poll scenarios are being touted "" unstable government, another coup, banning of PPP "" all roads seem to lead to confusion. According to Ji Ungpakorn, a prominent academic, "The political circus has come to town."

The only counterweight and perhaps hope is Thailand's pu noi (common people), whose formidable activism and peoples movement in 1973, 1976 and 1992 forced out authoritarian regimes, could yet come to bear.

The author is a political scientist and freelance journalist, who lived in, and closely follows developments in Thailand.