The case for organic growth

FARM VIEW/Fertiliser consumption slowed in the nineties

The stagnation in fertiliser consumption since 2000 "" following a perceptible deceleration in the 1990s "" is a cause for concern. It has already impacted crop production. The farm output growth numbers in the 1990s have been far lower than in the 1980s. For the future, too, this trend is ominous.

According to Fertiliser Association of India estimates, the annual compound growth rate in fertiliser consumption "" which was a healthy 8.6 per cent in the 1980s "" slid to less 2.9 per cent in the 1990s.

A similar trend was witnessed in foodgrain output. The annual compound growth rate, which clocked 3.1 per cent in the 1980s, plummeted to 1.1 per cent in the 1990s "" losing pace against population growth for the first time since the Green Revolution in the 1960s.

In physical terms, while the total annual fertiliser nutrient consumption grew by over 7 million tonnes between 1980-81 and 1990-91, it increased by only 4.1 million tonnes between 1990-91 and 2000-01.

What is even more worrying is that since the beginning of the current decade, even this meagre growth has vanished, giving way to near-stagnation "" at around 16 to 17 million tonnes a year.

Even for 2003-04, a year of a more or less benevolent monsoon, the total nutrient consumption is unlikely to exceed 17 million tonnes, lower than the peak of 18.1 million tonnes touched in the terminal year of the last decade.

These trends seem all the more worrisome when viewed in the backdrop of the fact that the robust growth rates in the 1980s were despite a prolonged three-year drought, peaking in 1987. In contrast, the 1990s were part of a rare phase of 12 consecutive good monsoons, and yet the growth in fertiliser use as well as grain output slowed down.

Indeed, it is not easy to precisely delineate the reasons for this dismal scenario. For, it is the result of a combination of factors. But it is surely easy "" and safe as well "" to foretell that the growth in crop production is unlikely to pick up substantially unless fertiliser consumption begins rising again.

The Tenth Plan target of 4 per cent growth will remain elusive without increased fertiliser consumption. The thumb rule principle is that the application of an additional one tonne of fertiliser nutrients can, under normal circumstances, result in an additional crop yield of 10 tonnes. (It is, of course, only an indicative measure of the impact of plant nutrients on yield, which is a function of numerous other factors as well.)

A steady deterioration of soil health in areas where intensive agriculture is in vogue can be cited as both the cause and effect of low and flawed fertiliser use.

If the applied doses of nutrients are insufficient to fully compensate the soil for the nutrient uptake by the crop, the net nutrient balance is disturbed. This has been noticed in many areas.

Skewed and imbalanced nutrient application also leads to a deficiency in the major, and more so, minor plant nutrients, further aggravating the soil health. And the deteriorated soil health (nutrient imbalance), in turn, shows in poor response to the added fertilisers, dissuading the farmers from using fertilisers.

This vicious cycle has already set in, especially in the agriculturally-progressive tracts, causing in its wake, a plateauing of crop production and productivity there.

This aside, a sizeable chunk of the added plant nutrients is usually lost due to evaporation or leaching down to lower soil layers or even not coming in contact with plant roots due to wrong placement. Besides, inadequacy of soil-testing facilities is forcing farmers to arbitrarily decide fertiliser doses, resulting in poor crop response.

The slowdown in the expansion of irrigation is another significant factor contributing to the deceleration of fertiliser consumption growth. No new major or medium irrigation project has been launched since the Seventh Plan.

Besides, the groundwater potential has also been fully tapped, or even overexploited in most agricultural tracts. Consequently, the extension of fertiliser use to freshly-irrigated areas has not happened.

Prima facie, prices do not directly influence fertiliser use. For, during the decelerating phase of fertiliser consumption, farmgate prices have generally remained stable, albeit thanks to stiff political resistance to any attempt to hike prices. Even before this period, the impact of fertiliser price changes on consumption has invariably been only short-lived.

Thus, there is a need to spur public and, more importantly, private investment in irrigation, creation of soil- and fertiliser-testing infrastructure, and to promote the concept of soil-test-based balanced use of fertilisers to reverse the current downtrend in fertiliser consumption.

In fact, the promotion of fertiliser use even in rain-fed areas is needed for raising farm production and farmers' incomes. Otherwise, the sustainability of high-yield agriculture will be jeopardised.