The crude oil conundrum

Investments may flow into exploration, and there may be greater emphasis on renewables

The global crude market could see extreme volatility over the next two years. Both supply and demand are looking uncertain and the global energy mix is changing. Prices through the next two years will be likely to trend up, but with sharp swings in both directions. Brent oil futures all the way up 2024 are running above $60/barrel. 

The demand for crude doesn't vary too much with price. Demand is driven by economic growth, which causes greater power consumption and more transport activity. Even a tiny shortfall in supply can lead to a huge price spike and vice-versa, a tiny excess