The G-Minus-2 threat

This discordant G2 world and the end of ideological convergence now threaten economic convergence, and thus developing countries' prospects

For an all-too-brief period between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, the world was characterised by convergence, both ideological and economic. The West and the Rest agreed that an open liberal order was the best way to increase prosperity. Now, however, this ideological order threatens to unravel, with adverse consequences for the world economy.

The two-decade-long “golden age” was one of trade hyper-globalisation, reflected in an unprecedented increase in the ratio of world exports to gross domestic product (GDP). It was also an era of economic convergence: For the first time in centuries, living standards in a broad cross-section of