Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reference to the alleged gratitude of the people of Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in his 110-minute speech on August 15 may have been an oblique riposte to Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit's provocative statement that his country's Independence Day celebrations were in the name of Kashmir's future independence. Mr Basit's statement followed India's rejection of Pakistan's suggestion for foreign secretary-level talks in Kashmir in light of the current unrest there. The propriety of India's prime minister taking public cognisance, however indirectly, of a delusional comment by another country's diplomat points to questionable judgement.
But, far more serious issues arise concerning the larger geo-strategic consequences of these remarks. The biggest is whether the foreign policy and intelligence establishments have a template of action ready to tackle the multiple implications embedded in Mr Modi's statement. The three regions are, after all, among the most troubled in the world, and developments here go well beyond the complications of narrow regional conflicts. It is no coincidence that these remarks, made at the fag-end of the speech, have attracted more domestic and international attention than the list of achievements Mr Modi recorded of his two years in power.
The first implication concerns Kashmir. Mr Modi's statement may have lowered the stature of the India's position on Kashmir. India's negotiators have been able to adopt the high moral ground of claiming that Pakistan was fomenting unrest and exporting terror into the Indian state, which is unexceptionable given that Hafiz Sayeed remains at large in Pakistan. Now, the rejoinder from Pakistan's Foreign Affairs Advisor Sartaj Aziz suggests that the Kashmir issue has been reduced to a low-level retaliatory confrontation. Mr Modi's statement, he said, was proof that Indian intelligence agencies are spreading unrest in a Pakistani province. This has been an open secret, but it surely does India no good to have it aired so publicly.
Is this the broad plan behind National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's sinister remark that Pakistan could "do one Mumbai" but may lose Balochistan? The statements have already raised hopes among Balochi activists involved in a long struggle for independence that Indian intelligence agencies would step up aid. If India backs away, the country's reputation as a self-styled regional guardian of human rights and freedom will suffer. If, however, India does choose to play a bigger covert role in these three regions, the wisdom of revealing a hand so plainly is open to question. How far is the US, with whom India is enjoying its best relations in decades, likely to go along, despite its stated aversion to Pakistan's military-terrorist complex?
More important is the question of Pakistan's ally China, with whom India is involved in tricky negotiations over its support for Nuclear Suppliers' Group membership. China's geo-political agenda in the region via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is heavily vested in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, and its plans to develop the port of Gwadar are dependent on peace in Balochistan, where separatists have been actively involved in sabotage. India's good relations with Afghanistan and Iran, too, may come under strain, since the Baloch independence movement involves parts of these countries. On balance, Mr Modi's reference to these regions appears to be more reflexive rather than a thought-through judgement.
