The Great Gatsby Curve: Will India be like East Asia or Latin America?

If India combines great inequality with poor inter-generation mobility, it risks becoming, not like East Asia with its rapid growth rates, but like under-performing Latin America, writes T N Ninan

Economists have been moderating their growth forecasts as the second phase of Covid has been running its course. Most commentators are agreed that the economy should be back at year-end to where it was two years ago. The question is what will happen beyond that. Should one expect a return to rapid economic growth, or is the country headed for medium-term disappointment? For an answer, one has to dig under recent growth rates.
 
First, as is known, the system was slowing even before Covid hit, growth having halved from 8 per cent in the peak of the Modi years