France's Socialist government is trying for a left-right reversal. It is forcing the legislature to approve spending cuts and regulatory reforms which centre-right predecessors talked about but were unable to enact. President Francois Hollande may have to wait for posterity to thank him. Today's electorate probably won't.
Voters may be more open to the idea of reform now than in the past. Polls show that nearly three-quarters of the population want companies to be able to set employees' working hours, a change which might dilute the cherished mandate for a 35-hour working week.
Also, reforms come easier when consumers are confident. The French are the most optimistic in eight years, despite unemployment rates hitting new peaks. Perhaps falling petrol prices move them more than jobs. Maybe they are not worried about planned cuts in government spending, about 50 billion euros in total between 2015 and 2017. Or they might be cheered by Hollande's promise of lower tax rates for the poorest households next year, following a 2014 cut.
Still, any popular acceptance of reform is not helping the reforming Socialists. The party has done poorly in every election, local or European, since Hollande came into office in 2012. If the polls are right, December's regional elections will continue this pattern.
Hollande has a problem with the left wing of his own party, echoing the cleavages in the German Social Democratic Party over Gerhard Schroeder's 2003 to 2005 labour and benefit reforms. He is also losing votes to Marine Le Pen's anti-immigrant and pro-state National Front. And Hollande himself lacks charisma. A recent poll showed if a presidential election were held now, he would not make it to the second round, leaving the contest to Le Pen and the candidate from the centre-right Republicans.
If his reforms will bear fruit before the 2017 presidential elections, Hollande might regain enough popularity to stand a chance of re-election. But the German precedent is not encouraging. The SDP ended up with a junior role in the coalition government formed after the 2005 elections. Voters don't always appreciate leaders who are trying to do the right thing.
