The inflation dilemma

Markets are in for a very bumpy ride if inflation is truly breaking out

The inflation data in the US and globally continues to deteriorate and worry investors. The latest readings showed the US consumer price index (CPI) at 7.5 per cent, once again above expectations. Below the headline numbers, the data was even more concerning.

The Cleveland Fed produces a trimmed mean (excluding the highest and lowest outlier data points) giving a good sense of the underlying trend. This data series is at a 40-year high. The Atlanta Fed produces a series where they break inflation into sticky and flexible components. As expected, the flexible prices component is off the charts, rising exponentially