The 'no-changers' have it

A historical perspective will help understand the results of the Gujarat elections. Long before Narendra Modi came on the scene, in the state assembly elections of both 1995 and 1998, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a near two-thirds majority, give or take a few seats. The party also enjoyed a 42-43 per cent share of the popular vote, some 8-10 percentage points more than votes for the Congress. Post-Godhra and in the Modi-led elections of 2002, the BJP vote share crossed 50 per cent, but the party only won an additional 10 seats or so "" suggesting that the increased vote share reflected itself more in the margins of victory in seats that were already the BJP's. It was inconceivable, therefore, that in another Modi-centric election, the popular vote would swing so far away from the BJP that it would lose not just the post-Godhra vote surge and therefore the margin cushion in individual constituencies, but also a substantial part of its traditional vote base "" which is what would have been required for the Congress to gain substantially in votes and seats. It is no surprise that this has not happened and the BJP is back to its near-two-thirds majority, while the Congress is back to licking its wounds "" thus driving another nail into the credibility of exit polls.

Some other historical perspectives are also in order. While the BJP's vote share in this election is not yet known, its seat count is in the same ballpark range as it was in 1998 and 1995. That would suggest, a priori, that the BJP vote share remains broadly unchanged, and because the victory margins are large, that some of the post-Godhra vote surge remains intact even five years later. So to a limited extent this is Mr Modi's victory layered over and above the BJP's. Mr Modi led his forces into battle, and it is evident that he did not rely too much on the support of either fellow-BJP leaders from other states or even perhaps on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which like Achilles is said to have been sulking in its tent. Despite that, the end result is not very different from a decade ago. The boring truth seems to be that the solid BJP base in Gujarat has once again manifested itself, and there is a thin Modi icing on top of that cake. Whether that is because of his polarising ability, his 'communal' appeal, or his development track record of the past five years "" very creditable as it is "" is hard to tell; a safe bet would be that it is all three.

It is also worth recalling that the BJP in the state split about a year before the 1998 election, when Shankarsinh Vaghela broke away from the party. That did not prevent the BJP from sweeping the election then. In 2002, the Patel sub-caste represented by Keshubhai Patel, the former chief minister, was said to be unhappy in Saurashtra at Keshubhai's marginalisation, and many predicted that this would affect the BJP's chances. It did not happen. So it was hoping for too much that the same marginalised Mr Patel's more open rebellion this time round would help swing the balance against the BJP. Sonia Gandhi campaigned using strong language in 2002, she did so again this time. It made no difference on either occasion.

The only conclusion possible is that Gujarat is solid BJP country and very much pro-Modi, at least when it comes to assembly elections (in contrast, the Congress did very well in the state in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections). And the Congress, stuck for five successive elections (since 1990) at about 60 seats or less, has no hope of coming within sniffing distance of power without investing a massive and sustained effort. Indeed, given the stability of Gujarat's voting behaviour and the massive margins in some constituencies, it is hard to see how the results can be different even in 2012.