India has done well to reiterate its commitment to peace, reconstruction, relief and development in Afghanistan. Given the long history of India’s friendship with Afghanistan, and the affection that the ordinary people of Afghanistan have for India and the Indian people, India has no option but to stay the course, despite the dastardly attacks on Indians. India’s ambassador in Kabul, Jayant Prasad, his brave band of diplomats and officials, and the army of civilians engaged in humanitarian relief, reconstruction effort, healing, educating, training and building infrastructure in Afghanistan deserve the highest praise, support and sympathy. Equally, they deserve security. Both the governments of Afghanistan and India owe it to the Indians, who are engaged in helping Afghanistan, to ensure their safety and security, one way or another. The US and its allies must also show greater understanding for the Indian effort in Afghanistan, viewing the battle in that troubled land not just as a normal war between two armies or a campaign against insurgents, but as an ideological battle between those who seek a liberal and democratic Afghanistan and those who seek to go against the tide of time.
If the US and Nato forces choose to scale down their engagement in Afghanistan, there are only three outcomes possible: first, and the worst, an outright victory for the Taliban, defeat of the Hamid Karzai government and Afghanistan coming under the shadow of the Pakistan Army; second, and messy, a prolonged civil war which Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan and India get dragged into, resulting in a dismemberment of Afghanistan; third, and perhaps the best of bad options, would be a six- or seven-party coalition stabilising Afghanistan over a reasonably long period of time. The parties to such a negotiated settlement would have to be the US, Russia, China, Iran, India and Pakistan, and perhaps Saudi Arabia. The Central Asian republics, especially Tajikistan, would also have a stake in such a negotiated settlement. Such a regional dialogue could be the precursor to a United Nations (UN) solution that brings Afghanistan under a UN administration, on the lines of the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC) model of 1992-93. Without such out-of-the-box solutions, Afghanistan is unlikely to find peace in our lifetime. From being the battleground of super powers, it is becoming the war zone of regional powers. This drift is dangerous. If members of the UN Security Council lose interest in Afghanistan and let India and Pakistan, and other regional powers, fight it out, no one but the region as a whole would suffer the most. All the countries in the region, including the Central Asian republics, China, Iran, India and Pakistan have more important national priorities like improving the quality of life of their own people. If Afghanistan swings from one extreme of being at the receiving end of focused superpower interest to the other end of benign neglect, with regional powers sucked into the vacuum, it would harm all nations concerned. Perhaps the time has come for the international community to look at the UNTAC option in Afghanistan.
