The presidential race

American politics, rarely boring, has become even more interesting than usual""though the prospect of nearly two years of presidential campaigning is exhausting even for those watching from the sidelines. On the one hand you have President Bush saying what he thinks of the Baker-Hamilton study group's report on Iraq by doing the exact opposite of what they recommended, and signalling that he is going to have one last throw of the dice. If that seems destined to get the Republicans even more of a bad press over what most people recognise as a failed war, the Democratic race for the party's presidential nomination has not one but two novel elements. One is the first-ever woman candidate, someone who also is the first wife of a former president to seek the nomination for herself; the other is a 45-year-old first-term Senator of African-American origin. From an Indian perspective, with a contemporary history of a woman prime minister, and Dalits as Speaker of the Lok Sabha and Chief Justice, the idea that women and people from the oppressed classes can occupy high office is not particularly novel, but it is in the US which has just got its first woman as speaker of the House of Representatives. It therefore adds a new element to the presidential campaign.

The clash of ideas could be equally interesting. In his 'state of the union' address on Tuesday night, President Bush has held out the prospect of a remarkable turnaround in his government's fiscal fortunes and the ending of the fiscal deficit, thus blunting one of the principal criticisms that have been aimed at him for the past six years""that he has introduced misguided tax changes and thereby squandered the budget surplus bequeathed to him by President Clinton. Indeed, Mr Bush could leave behind a healthy, rapidly growing economy""and in retrospect his presidency might not be seen as quite the disaster that it has looked like for the last two years. It would also give the Republicans plenty of ammunition to fire back at their liberal critics. Both Mr Obama and Ms Clinton occupy the liberal end of the political spectrum (though Ms Clinton has tried hard to move closer to the centre). A clash of ideologies will certainly result if, as is widely expected, Senator McCain becomes one of the main Republican candidates. With both ideas and personalities in the fray, this could develop into a contest with clear choices.

Americans tend to elect people whom they like as people. Both Al Gore and John Kerry were seen as being brainier individuals than George W Bush, but it was Mr Bush who won on the strength (among other things) of a folksy manner. Ronald Reagan, likewise, was someone who could connect with voters at a personal level, and Bill Clinton could hold any audience in the palm of his hand. That kind of appeal is not there for Ms Clinton, who comes across to most people as too cold and calculating. In contrast, Mr Obama has been blessed with charisma, but is relatively untested. Some argue that these two early candidates will divide the liberal vote and allow a more centrist candidate to drive through. At this stage of the game, of course, all possibilities are open, but people will watch the early headlines more than usual.