Defending his initiative to seek an agreement with the United States for promoting cooperation in civil nuclear energy development, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh famously told Parliament that he was aware he was taking some political and diplomatic risks in seeking a new strategic engagement with the US but that it was a “risk worth taking”. The notion that there are risks involved with major diplomatic initiatives but that some risks are worth taking has shaped Dr Singh’s thinking on foreign policy. In seeking to engage Pakistan and try and improve relations with it, Dr Singh took his first risk when he invited President Pervez Musharraf to visit India in April 2005 to watch a cricket match. This decision was taken at the time against establishment advice since the dominant view in India after the infamous Agra Summit was that Mr Musharraf could not be trusted. Refusing to be cowed down by received wisdom, Dr Singh chose to engage Mr Musharraf in what turned out to be a historic process that could have yielded, in Mr Musharraf’s own words, a lasting solution to all the so-called “outstanding issues” that have bedevilled the bilateral relationship for over half a century. Regrettably, Mr Musharraf’s domestic political fortunes tumbled and with him went the process that was on the verge of yielding substantial results. India-Pakistan relations have been in a tizzy since then.
Following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the emergence of a new political dispensation in Pakistan and the devastating Mumbai attack of November 2008, many advised Dr Singh to forget taking the dialogue process forward, but he took his second risk at Sharm El Sheikh. That gamble did not pay off. As a consequence, the naysayers in New Delhi thought they had the last laugh and that Dr Singh would at least now listen to them and forget about trying to normalise relations with Pakistan. Emboldened by US President Barack Obama’s ill-advised diplomatic initiatives in the region, and his increased dependence on Pakistan for a way out of Afghanistan, Pakistan thought it could up the ante and ride a high horse in relations with India. The establishment view in Delhi was once again that re-engaging Pakistan would be politically risky. The idea that re-engaging Pakistan now was politically risky was, for Dr Singh, like a red rag to a bull! He happily charged forward! Thus Thimphu happened.
What next? Much depends on how deep Dr Singh’s Thimphu message sinks into his Pakistani interlocutor. If Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gilani understands that it is as much in Pakistan’s interest as India’s to resolve long-standing bilateral issues and also deal firmly with the terror threat that India faces from Pakistan-based groups, then one can expect a resumption of the famous Singh- Musharraf dialogue from the point where it was left off. Despite the general air of pessimism in India about relations with Pakistan, especially on Islamabad’s commitment to deal with anti-India terrorists and Islamic extremists, it is possible to be optimistic provided the democratic and moderate political forces in Pakistan appreciate Dr Singh’s message about the region’s shared future and the feasibility of a genuinely win-win deal. The ball is now in Mr Gilani’s court.
