If there is anything in common between the record-breaking heatwave in the US, the wettest-ever April-to-June period in the UK and an unusually dry June and floods in Assam of an intensity rare so early in the monsoon season, it is that all these are the likely consequences of climate change. Weather scientists, till recently, were hesitant to connect such divergent events, happening far apart, with a common global cause. That is no longer true. A report released a few days ago by the UK Met Office and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded that the extreme weather events in recent months could be linked with global warming.
The fact that climate change is reducing snow cover is well established. The Himalayan glaciers are contracting, including the Gangotri glacier that feeds the Ganga. Doubts have also been cast on the future of several other rivers. Equally disquieting are the recorded and projected changes in temperature and rainfall trends. In the past 100 years, the average mean temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius. However, the implications go beyond a further two-to four-degree increase. The pattern of rainfall, too, is forecast to change. It might increase in Jammu and Kashmir and some parts of the southern peninsula and decrease in many other regions. These changes are likely to increase the frequency of devastating droughts, floods, cyclones, hailstorms, cloudbursts and of other weather extremes, such as excessive heat, cold or frost. India’s vulnerability to such contingencies is high in view of its large agriculture-dependent population, excessive pressure on natural resources and poor coping mechanisms.
Certainly, climate change, a global phenomenon, needs global solutions. However, the necessary international action, as stipulated in the Kyoto protocol on climate change, has failed to put in place adequate measures. Worse still, this pact is set to expire in December this year. Well-conceived national strategies are, thus, imperative for climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. The game plan for this would have to be two-pronged. First, greenhouse gas emissions would need to be curtailed through increased use of clean energy, curbing deforestation and capturing harmful gases in vegetation, soil and oceans. And, second, infrastructure and policies would need to be put in place to minimise the harmful fallout of natural disasters like floods, droughts and other unforeseeable weather extremes. This would require capacity building for warnings about weather contingencies and rapid action for evacuation, relief and rehabilitation of the affected population. Besides, new seeds and farming practices capable of withstanding environmental stresses will need to be evolved to boost the farm sector’s resilience against climate change. Climate is a complex, chaotic system; the pattern of the monsoon over millions of years is surprisingly fragile, and may not survive large changes in global temperature. Formerly extreme weather events may become the norm, and the Union government must prepare its adaptation strategies.
