Tough call for RBI

On one hand, growth is slowing down, while on the other, inflation is inching up

Most available data points suggest that GDP growth slowed further during July-September 2019. The State Bank of India (SBI) says that out of 26 indicators that it tracks, as many as 21 slowed down. For example, tax collections were down, automobile sales were down, the Index of Industrial Production was down, and imports and exports were down.

Most estimates for Q2 GDP growth range between 4.2-4.7 per cent with estimates for the full year 2019-20 also getting scaled down. The pessimistic forecasters include the SBI, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank, World Bank,