The return of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) after a four-month hiatus in its 13-year rule over Turkey is being widely perceived as a vote for stability. No surprise, the Turkish stock market gained and the currency strengthened after the verdict was announced. By winning 317 of the 550 seats in the Grand National Assembly and almost half the votes, the party has improved significantly on its tally of 258 seats in the June elections, though still short of the 327 seats won in the 2011 elections. The results were not unexpected. Turkey has been roiled by slow growth, high unemployment and inflation and a weakening lira since 2010. The four months during which the major parties failed to form a governing alliance did little to bolster confidence of foreign investors on whom Turkey is heavily dependent owing to its relatively low savings rate.
But, as any Indian voter knows, decisive verdicts mean high expectations. This issue broadly centres on former Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan, who appointed himself to the ceremonial role of president in 2014. For him, the November verdict is a disappointment if only because it is unlikely to deliver the two-thirds majority to enable the transition to a presidential form of government. Mr Erdogan's initial popularity stemmed from his successful stewardship of Turkey in his first decade in power, growing at an average of seven per cent - an advantage he squandered by paying little attention to structural reforms and striking questionable business deals (some involving his son). He encroached on Turkey's secular values by purveying a variety of political Islam that included the projection of himself as a caliph (including a 1,150-room palace-cum-office complex) to consolidate his conservative power base. The protests that erupted in Istanbul's Gezi Park and spread throughout Turkey in 2013 indicated the dissatisfaction with his rule among Turkey's liberal elite. Mr Erdogan was, however, untroubled by constitutional restraints; he openly directed the AKP during the four-month interregnum to the point of involving Turkey in the war in West Asia and resuming hostilities with Kurdish separatists. There are worries that Mr Erdogan may leverage the latest verdict to deliver more of the same. Till August, Turkey had been a haven of peace in a tumultuous region by staying out of the war, declining the US use of its air bases and hosting some three million refugees.
Many analysts have drawn parallels between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr Erdogan because both have similar backgrounds, changed the nature of the public discourse by stressing economic development and came to power on high expectations. Both have also allowed doubts to be raised about their countries' secular ideals. But unlike Mr Erdogan, no corruption accusations dog Mr Modi as yet, and his government has shown intent in improving the business climate. Mr Modi's success is yet to be fully tested - but Mr Erdogan's path may not be promising.
