Unmistakable slowdown: Some indicators disappoint, some flatter to deceive

It is hard to square the picture painted by the different indicators with the RBI's 7% full-year growth forecast. The World Bank's revised forecast of 6.5% may be closer to the mark, writes T N Ninan

The signs of an economic slowdown are unmissable. Whether it is industrial production, electricity generation, exports, or revenue from goods and services tax (GST), there is a loss of momentum. Some indicators flatter to deceive, like bank credit, which is growing at about 14 per cent. But when wholesale price inflation is at 12.4 per cent, much of the growth merely reflects the general price rise.
 
Take merchandise exports, which had an initial carry-over momentum from last year’s surge. But by September they had not only lost that momentum but shrunk — by 3.5 per cent during the month.