Unrealistic to expect manufacturing to be 25% of India's GDP, even by 2030

The decision to stay out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has the potential to become in the long term one of the Modi govt's major blunders. T N Ninan explains why

Let’s assume that India is serious about growing its manufacturing sector to become 25 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). This target was first set by the Manmohan Singh government in 2012, with a lead time of a decade (hence a target year of 2022). That goal, of 25 per cent by 2022, was repeated by the Modi government when it launched its ‘Make in India’ programme. There has been no progress so far, indeed the share of manufacturing has dipped somewhat since 2012. Under the new self-reliance programme, one could assume that the goal of 25 per cent