“Countries would be assessed on State capacity,” said a New York-based investor who specialises in trading on macroeconomic trends. This was in early April: We were discussing the prospects for developed and developing economies amidst the growing pandemic. By State capacity he meant the general government’s (union, state and municipal) ability to control the virus, as well as manage the economic cost that came with it. What he feared was that in emerging markets, such as Brazil, India and Indonesia, the size of the State is too small to first enforce the lockdown, then manage the calibrated opening up, and
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