Unwelcome reminder

Trade weakness would affect growth

Data on Indian trade for the month of October 2022 has been released and, for the first time in two years, exports have declined. This has caused a recalibration of some expectations of growth and trade momentum in the coming months. Economic data for September and October is often not exactly comparable with previous years because of the variable dates of various festivals, which impact both output because of the timing of holidays and the demand for consumables, as well as commodities such as gold. Another ground for care in interpreting these numbers is that petroleum-based products compose a large