Watch crude oil for clues on rupee course

If the price rises, the trade balance will worsen, putting the rupee under pressure

The global crude oil sector is hard to read due to the complexity of factors influencing supply and demand. Global growth is slowing. This will lead to softening demand and create downside pressure on prices.

But the shipping industry is due to shift to low-sulphur fuels by January 2020. Meeting the new demand for low-sulphur fuels from shipping implies refining an extra 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. This is significant since global production is 81 million bpd. It could balance off low demand from a slower world economy and lead to higher diesel and kerosene (aviation turbine