Watch the numbers of auto and consumer durable companies carefully

The Reserve Bank of India is presumably, betting, the rupee won't weaken more, or even that it will rebound

The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision to hold policy rates at the last review surprised the markets. There is some underlying justification.  There has been a focus on currency and energy markets. But other commodities’ trends have slipped under the radar.  Metals are bearish and so are agro commodities and that balances off higher energy costs to an extent. 

Hence, inflation has stayed benign. At first sight, that's a paradox. Given India's high exposure to trade, a weaker rupee and higher import tariffs, the inflation trend line should go north. But food inflation is low and food is about 45