What to make of reversal of fortunes for BJP in three by-elections

In order to win the next election at a similar scale, the BJP would have to either replicate its 2014 distribution and performance, or make up for losses in the north and west elsewhere in the country

What to make of the stunning reversal of fortunes for the Bharatiya Janata Party in three by-elections in the Hindi belt? Both in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh as well as in Araria in Bihar, the BJP has lost to an opposition that was supposed to be down and out. In UP, it saw the effective consolidation of anti-BJP votes, but also was subject to a clear decline in its vote share since 2014. In Bihar, the BJP’s loss comes although it is now allied with the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar. The combined vote shares of both