 "AAP, DELHI")
It is not surprising that pollsters got the Delhi Assembly elections right. The biggest problem with Indian polling is the conversion of vote share into seats. Even if the sample is representative and the data reliable, this is an intractable problem: Multiparty elections are often won by less than the statistical margin of error.
Delhi was a two-horse race with margins comfortably in favour of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The Congress (INC) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) played spoiler in only about eight seats out of 70 where they polled more votes than the winning margin.
Aggregated 2020 vote shares were
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
Unlock 30+ premium stories daily hand-picked by our editors, across devices on browser and app.
Pick your 5 favourite companies, get a daily email with all news updates on them.'%3E%3Cg id='Artboard-Copy' transform='translate(0 0.012)'%3E%3Cg id='_126115' transform='translate(0 0)'%3E%3Cpath id='Path' d='M17.537 1.487a.473.473 0 0 0-.467.477v12.67A2.4 2.4 0 0 1 14.7 17.06H3.3A2.4 2.4 0 0 1 .933 14.634V.966H14.587v12.29a.467.467 0 0 0 .933 0V.489a.473.473 0 0 0-.467-.477H.467A.473.473 0 0 0 0 .489V14.63a3.346 3.346 0 0 0 3.3 3.382H14.7A3.346 3.346 0 0 0 18 14.63V1.965a.467.467 0 0 0-.462-.478Z' transform='translate(0 -0.012)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Path-2' d='M12.676 3.955a.478.478 0 1 0 0-.955H2.508a.478.478 0 1 0 0 .955Z' transform='translate(0.124 0.166)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Path-3' d='M12.676 13H2.508a.478.478 0 1 0 0 .955H12.672a.478.478 0 1 0 0-.955Z' transform='translate(0.124 0.768)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Shape' d='M2 6v5.371a.484.484 0 0 0 .467.5H7.531a.484.484 0 0 0 .467-.5V6a.484.484 0 0 0-.467-.5H2.467A.484.484 0 0 0 2 6Zm.933.5H7.066v4.375H2.933Z' transform='translate(0.122 0.317)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Path-4' d='M12.321 5.5H8.967a.478.478 0 1 0 0 .955h3.354a.478.478 0 1 0 0-.955Z' transform='translate(0.517 0.317)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Path-5' d='M12.321 8H8.967a.478.478 0 1 0 0 .955h3.354a.478.478 0 1 0 0-.955Z' transform='translate(0.517 0.467)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3Cpath id='Path-6' d='M12.788 10.977a.473.473 0 0 0-.467-.477H8.967a.478.478 0 1 0 0 .955h3.354a.471.471 0 0 0 .467-.478Z' transform='translate(0.517 0.617)' fill='%23c4132a'%3E%3C/path%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E)
Full access to our intuitive epaper - clip, save, share articles from any device; newspaper archives from 2006.
Preferential invites to Business Standard events.
Curated newsletters on markets, personal finance, policy & politics, start-ups, technology, and more.