Why a swing in the state polls may not set the tone for Lok Sabha-2019

Assembly polls are influenced by state-level issues like regional drought, while Lok Sabha elections in May might be more of a leader-influenced contest-a repeat of 2014, writes T N Ninan

It is inevitable that the results of the assembly elections in the three heartland states of Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will be seen as a foretaste of the Lok Sabha elections, due six months hence. But the pundits had better be careful, for state and national elections should not be conflated. In particular, there is the Modi factor in a parliamentary election, which is what helped the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) corner a higher share of the popular vote in Lok Sabha-2014, compared to the assembly elections six months earlier in 2013. This time, too, the assembly elections