 "Members of Dalit Community protest in Ahmedabad on Tuesday against the assault on dalit members by cow protectors in Rajkot district. Photo: PTI")
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has twice in two days locked horns with gau rakshaks, or cow protectors. Even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has echoed Modi in calling many of these self-proclaimed cow protectors as anti-social elements.
That Modi felt the need to stress the point more emotively in Hyderabad on Sunday, after already having spoken on the issue at the MyGov town hall event on Saturday, indicates a desperation among the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership that recent anti-Dalit atrocities could cost it dear in Uttar Pradesh, which goes to the polls next year.
Hyderabad was important for another reason. It was at the Hyderabad Central University that Rohith Vemula, a research scholar, had committed suicide in January this year. The fallout of that suicide had been perceived to have undone several efforts by Modi and his government to reach out to Dalits over the past two years.
Unfortunately for the BJP, a defence of Dalits could potentially mean some losses among its core support base of upper caste Hindus, particularly those, including the so-called cow protectors, who adhere to a narrow aggressive Hindutva.
Apart from UP, there is a series of Assembly elections lined up in states where Dalits comprise a significant part of the population. (See chart)
Elections are due in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur by early 2017. Of these, UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab have a sizeable population of Dalits. Elections are also due in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh by end-2017 and in Karnataka by mid-2018. Most of these states have large Dalit populations.
At 31.9%, Punjab, which goes to polls early next year, has the highest percentage of Dalits. The BJP recently appointed a Dalit, Vijay Sampla, as its Punjab unit chief. Dalits comprise more than 20% of the local population in at least a third of Uttarakhand's 13 districts. The BJP hopes to make a return to power in Uttarakhand, especially given its recent setback – handed down by the courts – in bringing dislodging the Congress government there.
Similarly, in Himachal, where the BJP has ambitions to return to power in the elections due in end-2017, Dalits make up one of the largest blocs. Dalits also form the largest social group in Karnataka, where the BJP hopes to return to power in Assembly polls due in mid-2018.
Dalit support was critical to the BJP winning 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It won as many as 39 of the 84 seats reserved for scheduled castes in the 543-strong Lok Sabha. In the recent cabinet expansion in the first week of July, Modi increased the representation to Dalit MPs in his council of ministers. He has also announced several schemes for Dalits, including Stand Up India where women, Dalits, and tribals get easy loans from public sector banks.
The second reason is a bit more complex. Most of these vigilante groups might claim to profess their allegiance to an aggressive Hindutva, but have tenuous links to the Sangh Parivar. They instead claim to be inspired by the more militant Shiv Sena, and that party’s symbol of a roaring tiger can be found on their vehicles, particularly in Maharashtra. The Sangh Parivar, both the BJP and RSS, are keen to distance themselves from elements that have criminal antecedents.
| State | Election due | % of dalits in total population of the state |
| Uttar Pradesh | Early 2017 | 20.5% |
| Punjab | Early 2017 | 31.9% |
| Uttarakhand | Early-2017 | 18% |
| Himachal Pradesh | End-2017 | 25.2% |
| Gujarat | End-2017 | 7.1% |
| Karnataka | Mid-2018 | 18% |
(Source: Census of India, 2001 and 2011)
