Why the Gujarat election is crucial for both BJP and Congress

Victory could still feel like defeat for the BJP whilst a loss could cheer up the Congress, almost as if it was a win

In exactly two weeks we will know the result of the Gujarat elections. However, as the campaign approaches its climax there’s speculation the electoral mood of the state has altered. Depending on who you talk to, the outcome is said to be reasonably close, a cliff-hanger or a clear victory for one side. But are we analysing the alleged winds of change accurately? Or are these predictions just a reflection of wishful thinking?

The first problem is you can make a convincing case for almost any outcome. The second is we don’t have reliable, leave aside indisputable, evidence to judge by.