'Yes, it's rational' doesn't mean it works

Devising a strategy that will outperform the broader markets all the time based on thorough back-testing of models is like creating a 'scientific forest'

“For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and…wrong.”

While the American essayist H L Mencken had written a version of the above statement in 1920, Germany had proved it a few decades earlier. Towards the end of the 19th century, Germany had a novel idea. Since certain trees provided greater capital returns, it made “sense” to create homogenous forests of these trees alone. To do so, existing forests were cleared of underbrush and new trees were planted in straight lines to facilitate counting and cutting. To duplicate the original forests, the state also created birdhouses and