There have been large divergences between the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a long while. The WPI for December 2015 was in negative territory at minus 0.73 per cent, year-on-year (y-o-y); the index has run negative for 14 months. Base effects caused by a sharp drop in the price of crude oil in the second half of calendar 2014 were negated by further falls in December 2015. In contrast, the CPI ran at 5.63 per cent up, y-o-y, for December. The key contributor to higher CPI was food. Inflation in this rose to 6.4 per cent in December on the CPI.
Both indices have edged upwards in the past four months (September-December 2015). Food has been the major group to experience inflation, with pulses, eggs, meat and fish all more expensive. In the WPI, food inflation is 8.17 per cent y-o-y for December but food has less weight in that index.
Overall, a negative WPI implies manufacturers' cost is falling. This gels with the collapse in global commodity markets. All metals and all petrochemicals (plastics, paints, clothes, fertilisers) are cheaper. If we strip off food and fuel, core WPI inflation still comes out at minus two per cent y-o-y for December 2015.
The WPI and CPI baskets are different in components, base years and weights. Commodities have a much higher weight in the WPI; food has a much higher one in the CPI. The latter measures the retail prices of energy fuels, which have not reduced much, since the excise component has been raised as crude prices fell. The WPI's fuel component has lost more ground than CPI.
So, divergences are normal. However, even allowing for all those factors, these have been massive for the past 12 months. Experts like the government's former chief statistician, Pronab Sen, reckon the WPI-CPI differential in terms of y-o-y change should not be more than plus or minus one per cent in either direction. In reality, divergences have been consistently upwards of six per cent.
What do policy makers do, given divergent rates? The deflationary WPI leads us to conclude that monetary easing is in order. The rising CPI might lead us to the opposite conclusion.
The CPI, which the Reserve Bank of India targets, is fairly close to the central bank's stated ceiling of six per cent. It has risen for several months in a row. It is a moot point if tinkering with interest rates will have much impact on food prices. That said, the CPI seen in isolation would imply RBI will maintain status quo in its February policy review, rather than cut policy rates.
The case for easing gets stronger if we look at the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The IIP was negative for November 2015, down minus 3.2 per cent y-o-y. In addition, corporate investments are said to have declined substantially in the December quarter, again underlining the case for easing. However, if we allow for Diwali and Dussehra, the IIP might have been slightly net positive for October and November combined.
RBI is very likely to hold the status quo, given its focus on the CPI. The central bank can also argue that commercial banks are reluctant to pass on the 125 basis points of cuts it has already made. Especially true for public sector banks, struggling to cope with sticky loans.
There are other ways to apply economic stimulus or tackle food inflation. Those measures need to come from the government. Instead of raising taxes, it could forgo revenue to stimulate consumption demand. Or spend large sums (risking a bulge in the fiscal deficit) to keep investment on the boil and compensate for weak corporate investment.
In 2015, the first two rate cuts came "out of turn", with RBI cutting unexpectedly. The second of those was on the back of the Budget. If that formula is repeated, there might be a cut in March, following the Budget.
There are data points in favour of a March/April cut. January inflation could fall - commodities dropped in January and that could affect both WPI and CPI (to a lesser degree). However, RBI also has to consider the rupee's level and currency attitude will surely affect its policy rate decisions.
Rate cuts must be passed on to affect the real economy, as they make a difference in terms of investment sentiment. Yet, the market fell despite cuts in 2015. Investors would remain cautious in the current environment even if there are rate cuts.
