 "Rahul Gandhi")
During his recent visit to Assam, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi made it a point to meet tea garden community leaders at Sivasagar in February. He also held a rally there, which, locals say, was well attended.
Propelled by good showing in areas dominated by the tea garden community, the Congress party scored a record third term in Assam in 2011. In fact, in the tea garden community-dominated upper Assam, the Congress won 44 of the total 56 seats with a vote share of nearly 46 per cent that year. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with just two seats, was a distant third with a vote share of 13 per cent.
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However, the situation changed dramatically in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, with a vote share of 45 per cent, won five of the six Lok Sabha seats in the region. The Congress won only one seat and could manage a mere 34 per cent votes.
In fact, in Assam, the BJP had led in 69 of the 126 assembly segments, while the Congress led in 23 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
"The community has always favoured us in all elections since 1952," said Paban Singh Ghatowar, former union minister and now Congress' campaign committee chief in the state. "We did not get the kind of support we were expecting in 2014. Assembly elections, though, will be different and we expect a far better show, which will help us repeat the 2011 performance."
Assam accounts for nearly half of the country's total tea production. There are 68,465 small and 825 large tea gardens in the state. The state had three consecutive years of good tea production in 2009, 2010 and 2011 - perhaps the reason why the Congress did so well in the last Assembly elections.
The tea production, however, fell by five per cent in 2014 and six per cent in 2015. That may have been the reason behind the Congress' poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, the Congress retained its vote share in two other regions of the state - lower Assam and Barak Valley in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
"Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are fought on different sets of issues," said Sandhya Goswami, professor at Guwahati-based Gauhati University. "It is unlikely that the upcoming Assembly elections will follow the Lok Sabha pattern. But whatever it is, the tea garden community will play a big role in deciding the outcome of elections."
Assam has nearly six million plantation workers, most of whom were brought in by the British tea garden owners in the 19th century from Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. They are demanding scheduled tribe status, which the BJP had promised before the Lok Sabha elections.
"Community members are a disenchanted lot now as the BJP has not fulfilled the promise so far," a former Delhi-based journalist now settled in Guwahati and pursuing his own business told this reporter. "It may help the Congress regain its position among the community members."
The Congress government recently started giving land to landless workers, free bus service for students from the community and recommended higher minimum wages for the workers in the sector. The recent rise tea prices may also lead to a feel-good factor among members of the community.
Other than the tea garden community, votes of Muslims are going to be crucial. Muslims constitute nearly 34 per cent of the state population. Nine of the 32 districts in the state are Muslim-majority.
Studies by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) show that, in terms of political choice, the community is divided into two groups: Assamese-speaking Muslims, concentrated mainly in upper Assam, and Bangla-speaking Muslims, concentrated in lower Assam.
CSDS studies show that a majority of Assamese-speaking Muslims preferred the Congress in the 2011 Assembly elections and the trend continued even in 2014. Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has become the preferred choice for Bangla-speaking Muslims. The AIUDF won 18 seats in 2011 and led in 24 Assembly segments in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
In lower Assam, the Congress won 16 of the total of 50 seats, whereas the AIUDF won 13 seats in 2011.
As for the BJP, experts say, repeating the 2014 performance is going to be a big challenge in the Assembly elections. "There is a perception that the party promised a lot to the state before the Lok Sabha elections and very little has been delivered," said Sandhya Goswami.
The BJP, though, has stitched up an alliance with the Bodo People's Progressive Front (BPPF), which has a strong presence in the Bodo Territorial Council area. The party was also expecting an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), but that has not come through. The BPPF won 12 seats and the AGP 10 seats in the 2011 Assembly elections. The party also nominated its chief ministerial candidate months ahead of elections.
