 "Mamata may buck trend of upsets for incumbents")
Incumbent governments are likely to be thrown out in favour of the Opposition in the just-concluded Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory, if exit polls are any indication. The notable exception being West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress continues to hold sway.
The polls on Monday predicted a Left Democratic Front (LDF) victory in Kerala, throwing out the Congress-led ruling United Democratic Front (UDF); and in Assam, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could emerge as the single-largest party, going on to form a government there for the first time in history, at the cost of the Congress.
In Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) could be dislodged by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance, in which the Congress is a nominal partner. If the DMK alliance comes to power, it will mean a massive stamp of approval on M K Stalin, son of DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, who is likely to be the next chief minister. The DMK effect was also seen in neighbouring Puducherry, where the DMK was tipped to unseat the All India Rangasamy National Congress. (ENTER: EXIT POLLS)
Going by the exit polls, the effects of the Saradha chit fund scam and general urban maladministration had no effect on Mamata Banerjee's capacity to retain power, although different polls predicted a different range of numbers. Kerala voted in current Opposition LDF, throwing out the Congress-led UDF. Thus, the biggest loser in the election would be the Congress, ousted from two states where it held power, Assam and Kerala.
The result will influence both the composition of the Rajya Sabha and the election of the President of India, due next year. It will also play a role in morale in the Rajya Sabha in the monsoon session where the Congress is likely to be somewhat more subdued and more ready to play ball with the government on constitutional amendment Bills like the goods and services tax.
The fact that the Left Front-Congress alliance in Bengal improved its vote share and increased its tally of seats suggests the alliance was not the write-off, as predicted by analysts.
Smaller parties like the All India United Democratic Front in Assam showed they had both the political stamina and the staying power.
High levels of turnout accompanied all elections, barring Tamil Nadu, pointing to a degree of apathy in the coastal state. In Kerala, the figures available till 6 pm said that 71 per cent of the total electors had cast votes. The figure was 75.12 per cent in 2011 and 74.02 per cent in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Tamil Nadu saw around 69 per cent voting. Chief Electoral Officer Rajesh Lakhoni said major towns saw low turnouts, while rural parts saw high turnouts. "Chennai could be the lowest. We have to study why the turnouts have been low overall," he said. It may be noted, the Election Commission was campaigning for 100 per cent voting. Chennai had reported 57 per cent turnout.
Polling started at 7 am and went till 6 pm. The highest turnout was Tiruthani (92 per cent), followed by places in Dharmapuri districts and at Pennagaram, from where Pattali Makkal Katchi chief minister candidate Anbumani Ramadoss is contesting.
Tamil Nadu has around 58.2 million voters and total candidates in the fray was 3,776. The Election Commission has earlier decided to postpone the elections in two constituencies - Aravakurichi in Karur and Thanjavur constituency in Thanjavur, from May 16 to May 23 - owing to the amount of money being seized from the constituencies in the recent days. The total number of constituencies in the state is 234.
The 2016 election will be the first time a powerful Third Front has emerged, while traditionally it has been two Dravidian parties - AIADMK and DMK - ruling the State for nearly five decades now.
