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Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s national ambition dangles between many ifs and buts. Political pundits believe that if there is one leader who could stand in the way of Modi’s projection as the prime ministerial candidate for 2014, it is Lal Krishna Advani, who remains a strong contender for the Prime Minister’s post in the party. Once a mentor, Advani’s relationship with Modi has soured so much that reports of the older leader contemplating a shift out of Gujarat for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections — the 85-year-old leader is the Gandhinagar MP. And to a large extent, Advani’s fall is linked to the rise of Modi.
Advani feared he would be marginalised from the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) policy and decision-making structures and processes once Modi is projected as the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) PM in-waiting. As the Modi juggernaut moves on, it’s becoming clear that the dust it kicks up may engulf Advani. For cadres, Advani is as much a part of history as the tumultuous developments of the early nineties. Experts are of the view that in politics every leader has his time and Modi’s time has arrived.
Last week Advani made an ‘unsuccessful’ attempt to counter Modi’s clout. He overtly made a comparison between two party chief ministers that ended up projecting Madhya Pradesh leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan as worthier than Modi. The comparison between Chouhan and his Gujarat counterpart has re-energised Modi’s loyalists enough to demand an early resolution of the leadership issue.
On May 6, BJP national general secretary Rajiv Pratap sent a clear signal that Modi is a bigger vote-catcher than Nitish. Rudy said that the Janata Dal (United) needs Modi as much as the BJP does. The senior BJP leader went on to add that the JD (U) leadership can take the opinion of its party workers on the issue.
The bypolls results of Gujarat, Bihar and West Bengal have one thing common. In none of these three states is Congress even remotely a contender. Looking at the map of India, it is tough to locate a single major state where the Congress can say with confidence that it is certain to do well in 2014.
Business Standard examines BJP-ruled states chief ministers' CV to quell confusion over leadership issue
Strengths
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Launched popular schemes like the Ladli Lakshmi Yojana, the Kanyadan Yojana and the Janani Suraksha Yojana and promoted religious tourism. The CM has also distributed free TV sets, cheap rice etc.
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Agriculture growth of state is at all time high with 18 per cent. Madhya Pradesh is the second largest wheat producer in the country.
- He is soft spoken and is in the good books of many senior leaders including LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj. Enjoys the backing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Weaknesses
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Faced corruption charges in dumper scam
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Needs constant backing of RSS to secure himself from BJP leaders in the state
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Came under severe attack for promoting Surya Namaskar in schools
Strengths
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Described as the most popular leader of the BJP. Enjoys enormous support from cadres
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Gujarat’s average agricultural growth is at 10 per cent. Promotes solar power in the state and runs development schemes in coastal and tribal areas
- Enjoys support of big business houses. Wants to make Gujarat hub of auto industry
Weaknesses
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Facing protests from farmers who don’t want to give their land for projects. Similar protests came up against setting up of cement plant in the state
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High-handedness, doesn’t tolerate criticism. Considered as an opportunist
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Not popular with senior BJP leaders and RSS members
Sushil Kumar Modi (Deputy CM of Bihar)
Strengths
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Well understands economic issues. Well qualified and tech-savvy
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Non-controversial. He is in the good books of all BJP and RSS leaders
- Manages coalition government well with JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar without any friction for consecutive two terms
Weaknesses
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He is not a mass leader or a good orator
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Dependent on bureaucracy
- Represents only a community in the state, doesn’t enjoy support of different castes
Strengths
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Only BJP chief minister who studied in IIT
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Enjoys support of minority community in the state. Backed by RSS which wanted him to become BJP chief
- Strict administrator with no corruption allegations
Weaknesses
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Single-minded approach, often gets involved in fights with BJP leaders
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No support base outside Goa
Strengths
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He made public distribution system successful in the state. Already has food security bill in the state
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Enjoys popular support of people in a tribal dominated state. Has backing of top BJP leaders and he is non-controversial
- Not facing any corruption charges
Weaknesses
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No support base outside the state
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Faced criticism for backing Salwa Judum to fight against Naxals
A look at how Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh fared in various parameters under Narendra Modi and Shivraj Singh Chouhan, respectively
