 "Lalu Prasad")
Mishri Lal Yadav, the two-time member of Bihar legislative council, reportedly does most of his campaigning riding pillion on a two-wheeler. One of the founder-members of Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), he switched side nearly a month ago and is contesting Alinagar assembly seat as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate. " Abhi kya baat karun? Main to campaigning kar raha hun (Cannot talk now as I am in the midst of campaigning)" is all that he told this reporter on the phone, with the sound of loudspeaker clearly audible in the background. Mishri Lal had contested the recent legislative council election from the Darbhanga constituency as the RJD candidate.
Mishri Lal is one of the 22 Yadav candidates the BJP has fielded in the Assembly elections with a view to make a dent in the all-powerful community of the state that has mostly supported Lalu Prasad's party in recent elections. Like Mishri Lal, some of these candidates have recently crossed over from the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) to contest as the BJP candidate. Observers say the party has attached so much importance to its "woo Yadav" strategy that it has selected more Yadavs than Bhumihars, Brahmins and Vaishyas, the three communities that have stood behind the BJP in recent times, for the forthcoming elections.
"The real strength of the RJD has been its hold over the Yadav community. Members of this community have been with the party in good and bad times," says Rakesh Ranjan of Patna University. He has been part of many pre- and post-election surveys in the state. According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) surveys, the RJD has been getting, on an average, 70 per cent of Yadav votes in all elections since 1995. Observers say for the BJP to do well in the elections, it has to break this hold.
Yadavs constitute nearly 14 per cent of the state's electorate. "According to reliable estimates, each of the 243 Assembly seats has at least 20,000-25,000 Yadav votes. There are many where members of this community have sizeable presence. Similarly, most of the constituencies have significant presence of Muslims as well. If you combine the two, it gives a solid head start to any coalition," says a Patna-based political analyst. He did not wish to be named.
The influence of Yadavs in Bihar politics can be understood from the fact as early as in 1977, members of the community had captured nearly 21 per cent of all assembly seats in the state assembly. Their representation reached 26 per cent in 1995 and has been declining since then. In the last assembly elections, it came down to just 16 per cent.
In 2010, as many as 19 Yadavs got elected on Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) tickets as compared to just 10 from the RJD. Incidentally, the RJD could manage to get just 56 per cent Yadav votes, according to CSDS data, it's the lowest ever in all elections since 1995. "The BJP is trying to do what the JD(U) did successfully in the 2010 Assembly elections-split the Yadav votes by putting up more candidates from the community," the Patna-based analyst argues. Nitish Kumar-led "grand alliance" too is not taking any chance this time. The three parties - RJD, JD(U) and the Congress - together have put up as many as 64 candidates from this community. The RJD alone has decided to field 48 Yadav candidates followed by 12 by the JD(U). Altogether, "grand alliance" has selected 55 per cent candidates from the other backward classes (OBCs), 16 per cent from upper castes, 14 per cent from Muslims and 15 per cent Dalits.
Additionally, leaders of the "grand alliance" hope a backward consolidation by targeting Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat's recent statement on reservation. "Lalu Prasad is aggressively pursuing Mandal II now. The RSS chief's statement gave him an excuse to pursue it vigorously," the political analyst says. On Saturday, Lalu Prasad sent out a number of tweets attacking the RSS by saying that the organisation does not care for the interests of "90 per cent backward, Dalits, poor and oppressed Hindus".
