The government has announced a Cabinet reshuffle at 11 am Tuesday. What does Prime Minister Narendra Modi have in mind?
• Retire older ministers: Minister for Small and Medium Enterprises Kalraj Mishra and Minorities Affairs Minister Najma Heptulla are both over 75. Although Heptulla is keen to contest the post of vice-president that will fall vacant next year, if she is shifted out as Governor, that move will be aborted.
• Elevate performing ministers: Ministers with independent charge like Piyush Goyal (power) and Dharmendra Pradhan (oil and gas) have been cited time and again by the Prime Minister as ministers who are both talented and hardworking. Will they get a promotion? What about Nirmala Sitharaman (Commerce and Industry)? And will Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi be part of this move and become Cabinet Minister for Minority Affairs?
• Fill vacancies: Vijay Sampla (social justice) and Sarbananda Sonowal (Youth affairs and sports) have been moved out to the states: Sampla to Punjab as BJP chief and Sonowal as chief minister of Assam. Moreover, some ministers like Arun Jaitley have the charge of two ministries (Finance and Information and broadcasting). This has to be rationalised.
• More representation to states going for elections: Seven states including Uttar Pradesh are due to have assembly elections in 2016-17. These are Goa, Gujarat, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur and Uttarakhand. Obviously these states need more representation in the council of ministers. Sanjeev Balyan, Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, could be elevated as minister with independent charge.
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Also there are indications that the BJP-led NDA government would call in Apna Dal MP Anupriya Patel in their Cabinet, as the party is seeking to lure OBC votes in Uttar Pradesh.
• What about the top four?: Home Finance, External Affairs and Defence? The government is unlikely to de-stabilise these.