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The electoral battle for Bihar has evolved into a duel between Brand Nitish and Narendra Modi's promises of Acchhe Din (better days). From knocking on the doors to pledging prohibition, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is leaving nothing to fate in a bid to ensure victory in the coming Assembly elections. This time, he has decided to go with a carefully choreographed campaign built around his persona, relegating his party and its alliance partners to the background.
The choreographer is none other than Prime Minister Modi's former key strategist, Prashant Kishor. Kishor is famously known for directing Modi's 2014 election campaign. He has portrayed Kumar as someone who cannot be separated from Bihar's development. Large posters of Kumar, which dominate the skyline of Patna and other towns in the state, carry a common tagline "Phir Ek Baar Nitish Kumar" (Nitish once again). These posters, which were personally approved by Kumar and Kishor, don't make any reference to the former's alliance with Lalu Prasad or his party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
Even the state government's campaign 'Badh Chala Bihar' (Bihar marches ahead) highlights Kumar's accomplishments as CM, ignoring Cabinet colleagues. A total of 400 'video raths' had been rolled out to showcase Kumar's achievements. However, the campaign, launched with much pomp and show, was doomed from the start. First, it was stayed by the Election Commission on account of the Legislative Council elections. Later, the Patna High Court stopped these "raths". Still, in one month, these reached out to around 10 million people in 18,000 villages of the state.
Undeterred, Kishor planned another ambitious door-to-door campaign, 'Har Ghar Dastak' (Knock at every door). Under this campaign, initiated in early July, the party claimed to have targeted roughly 30 million voters. Kumar himself kicked off this campaign by knocking on hundreds of doors in Patna City constituency, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fortress, on July 2. He asked three simple questions with folded hands. "Are you happy with my government? Do you want me to continue? Will you vote for me?"
Soon, Kumar will be touring Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata to meet the Bihari diaspora in these cities. Ahead of the Assembly elections, this tour is considered one of the most ambitious ploys of Kumar. Approximately five million non-resident Biharis are estimated to be living in these cities and a large section are still enrolled in the state's voter list. Most of them will visit Bihar during Navratra, Diwali and Chhath festivals. The state will be going to polls around the same time. Hence, Kumar is eyeing this lucrative vote-bank. Efforts are on to organise big rallies in these cities, where Kumar will be sharing the dais with Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar in Mumbai, and West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata. Kumar will repeat the three questions in these cities as well.
Political analysts suggest Kumar's campaign managers have tried to mitigate the middle class' fear that voting for him would mean voting for Lalu or Congress. "This is quite clear. Look at Kumar's campaign, it has no reference to its alliance partners. It's all about Kumar. As if his posters are trying to say that the RJD or Congress will have no role in the future government," says a senior journalist.
Analysts point to how carefully Kumar's strategists changed the political discourse in the state.
"Earlier, it was about how unstoppable the BJP was. Today, it is 'should Nitish Kumar be given another chance to further develop the state?' The question has been very carefully crafted. It makes Kumar the man who changed Bihar and brought it back on the tracks of development. More importantly, it makes no reference to the Lalu-Rabri regime. Kumar understands he needs Lalu Prasad's voters to counter the saffron party, but he is not ready to be seen associated with RJD given its dismal performance in governance. Hence the slogan 'Phir ek baar Nitish Kumar'," says a senior bureaucrat.
Last year, during the parliamentary elections, the BJP and allies polled almost 40 per cent votes. This is much higher than the saffron party's own vote share of 16 per cent in 2010, when it fought side-by-side with Kumar. However, last year, the BJP had the advantage of the "Modi wave", along with the general anger against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre. Plus, Lalu and Nitish were fighting separately, helping the BJP consolidate its vote-bank. This time, the party is facing the combined might of Nitish, Lalu and Congress, making it an evenly-balanced fight. Besides, the alliance has an advantage of Kumar, who has a proven track record in governance, as its chief ministerial candidate.
Therefore, the BJP is trying to portray this electoral battle as a fight against the return of 'Jungle Raj'. Ironically, the termed was coined by Kumar and Sushil Modi (senior BJP leader and former deputy chief minister of Bihar) to represent the bad governance of the Lalu-Rabri regime.
While Kumar has taken a line of development, it does not mean he is neglecting the notorious caste equations in the state. "Development is an attractive thing. But Kumar knows he will not be able to win the election on this alone. He tried this line in 2014 and failed miserably. Upper castes, despite having a soft corner for Kumar, are not going to vote for us. Therefore, he took a more 'adventurous' route and is trying to form an alliance of Muslims, Yadavs, Kurmis and backward castes. This has never been tried before primarily because of the enmity between Kurmis and Yadavs, both of whom are strong and land-owning intermediate castes. However, if this succeeds, he will have a command over 40-45 per cent votes, easily propelling him ahead of the BJP," said a Janata Dal (United), or JD(U) leader.
However, this is easier said than done. The Yadavs, who have seen their heyday during the Lalu-Rabri regime, have been at the receiving end ever since Kumar took the reins of Bihar. Their anger against Kumar is deep-rooted and it would be a tough task for the RJD cadre to mitigate their fears and general apprehension against the JD(U). What makes this task further difficult is the popularity of Modi among Yadav youths and hostility towards Lalu for nepotism.
The bigger task would be to attract the 17 per cent Muslim voters, who still view Kumar with suspicion for his admiration of Lal Krishna Advani. A JD(U) leader said, "Our biggest challenge is to attract Prasad's MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation to our side. They are still not convinced of Kumar's intentions. While some Yadavs might jump the ship, there is no question of Muslims voting for the BJP. Our biggest fear is: What if they don't come out to vote?"
