Congress trapped in its own Telangana game plan

If the party was banking on a merger with TRS to win a majority, it may be in for a big disappointment

Like any partition, the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh too comes with pain, anger, dislocation and unease. The creation of Telangana – India's 29th state – is almost a fait accompli. With the national parties – Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – are now backing the formation of Telangana, the political options of those opposed to the new state are rather limited. 

 

The state is virtually under siege. Rallies, sit-ins, road blockades and other forms of protests including violent attacks are being held across Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in support of a united Andhra (Samaikhyandhra).  

 

As events unfolded, it was clear that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government did not want further procrastination when the Lok Sabha elections were round the corner.

Political observers are of the view that the Telangana move should be seen as part of the larger Congress strategy of giving primacy to regional players in the game that will now gain momentum till the voting dates in 2014. The growth of regional parties is seen as one of the major political trends of recent years in India.

 

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Congress Calculus
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The Congress’s eyes are fixed on the fringe benefits. Telangana has 17 Lok Sabha seats and 119 assembly seats. Should there be a Telangana Rashtra Samithi-Congress coalition/merger, it can aspire to the magic figure of 60 assembly seats and 12-14 LS seats. TRS chief K Chandrasekhara Rao, however, has reportedly not only ruled out a merger but is non-committal even on an alliance with the Congress. The TRS boss is talking of a post-poll alliance, which is meaningless.

 

The Congress is aware the TRS leadership has been approached by BJP PM-hopeful Narendra Modi, who is also in touch with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Without a TRS alliance, the Congress would be vulnerable in the Telangana region.

 

The double-edged Telangana gamble might cost the Congress dear in the State’s other two regions: Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. The fight there will be between N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress.

Political observers feel that the Grand Old Party’s fortunes in the rest of Andhra are anyway in tatters, given the anti-Telangana mood as well as the Jagan factor. And in Seemandhra, which has 25 LS seats and 175 assembly seats, the simple majority is 80. The Congress currently holds 97 seats here but with a Jaganmohan Reddy sweep forecast, it would need to have a post-poll truck with YSR Congress.

 

The banner of revolt has already been raised by Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy who has been opposed to the bifurcation of the state. The Chief Minister has gathered considerable support in the non-Telangana areas for standing up to the Centre.

 

The Congress spin doctors believe having both Jagan and Rao on board will help it almost neutralise the TDP, the main Opposition.

 

The BJP factor also loomed large over the Congress’s  calculations. If it did not create Telangana, a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government would, in line with the BJP’s unambiguous policy favouring smaller States, and run away with the votes.

 

At a time when the Congress is hoping that it can somehow woo the YSR Congress chief, he too has opposed a divided state. Critics are of the view that the party allowed political compulsions in the form of possible alliances to dictate its moves.

 

What the Congress must now factor into its strategies is how it can prevent its MPs and MLAs from Seemandhra from defecting to the YSR Congress and the TDP.

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Poll Position: The Parties after the Telangana Announcement
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. TDP

 

Chandrababu Naidu has managed to keep party flock together. But he has lost a lot of ground in Seemandhra with his letter of support for Telangana. Many United Andhra supporters feel had he stayed silent, Congress would not have given verdict  on Telangana.
 

. BJP

 

Since it was the saffron party which first said it was going to give Telangana if voted to power, it has some support. Modi’s rising popularity is also going to reflect well for party. However, Telangana’s 12.4% Muslim voters would not want to have anything to do with the BJP.
 

. MIM

 

Looking to expand its base in some districts in Telangana, the party is likely to increase its tally in assembly. The Owaisis retain might in the Old City. The MIM has had differences with the Congress and Akbaruddin Owaisi’s imprisonment over a hate speech only widened the gap.
 

. Congress

 

The rebellion among the Seemandhra leaders might subside as even CM Kiran Kumar Reddy now accepts that a division is certain. But it would be difficult for the ruling party to retain its numbers in Seemandhra unless it has some kind of a poll tie-up with Jagan.
 

. YSR Congress

 

The party is all set for huge gains in Seemandhra but in Telangana, it would be completely alienated.
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Vexed Issues
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Water and power sharing are set to become contentious issues between Andhra and Telangana.

The Krishna and Godavari flow into Seemandhra through Telangana. Also, coal from Telangana fires thermal stations in Seemandhra.
Unlike Telangana, Seemandhra has gas and is also power surplus.

Without a proper outline for dispute resolution that allows for rational resource sharing, there is always the danger of narrow parochial sentiments taking over.
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The Resources
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Andhra has three main cultural regions:  Coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema and Telangana

. 20% of India’s coal deposits in in Telangana

. 45% of Andhra’s forest area is spread over five Telangana districts

. 41.6% of state’s population lives in Telangana

 

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The Telangana Trail
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. 1946-51 | Armed peasants of Telangana region fight against revenue collectors
 

.  1952 | Telangana students agitate against 'outsiders'

.  1953 | Andhra state is created

.  1969 | Osmania University students agitate demanding Telangana. Telangana Praja Samithi formed. Many killed in police firing as agitations continue

.  1973 | A political settlement is reached with the Centre, but nothing emerges

.  2001 | K Chandrashekhar Rao revives the Telangana movement

.  2009 | P Chidambaram announces in Parliament that Telangana state process has started

.  2013 | Telangana announced