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The legislative assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir have delivered a fractured mandate. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in opposition for the past six years, is now the single largest party in the 87-member House, with 28 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is at second spot, with 25 seats. The results ratify the exit polls, which predicted a hung Assembly, with a four-way split of votes. Since no party managed a clear majority of seats, the state looks set for a coalition government.
The National Conference, at the helm of government for the past six years, bagged 15 seats. Its former ally, the Congress party, managed to net 12.
PDP President Mehbooba Mufti declined to say which party they were keen to ally with. “It will take time to explore possibilities and formation of a government to meet the people’s expectations and good governance. It is difficult to say when it will materialise,” she said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had led the the BJP charge in the state. Though his ‘Mission 44’ hasn’t fructified, party seniors draw solace from the fact that it has doubled its tally.
The PDP got 22.7 per cent of the votes, the highest share coming from the Kashmir valley, unlike the BJP’s good performance in Hindu-majority Jammu alone (23 per cent share of votes). The fact that the BJP got no seat at all from Kashmir would weigh against it.
The PDP could, as it once earlier did, form a government with the Congress; the latter and its two associates have a total of 14 seats, enough for a majority. The Congress’ Ghulam Nabi Azad, former state chief minister and who led the Congress campaign said as much. “We are open...it is up to the mature leadership of the PDP to take a call, whether to align with communal forces or secular forces.” Adding, “They also know what is good for the interests of the state.”
The Congress has bagged four seats from the valley, three of the four seats in Ladakh and five from Jammu as well. In 2002, when the Congress and PDP alliance was in the saddle, the Congress was the major partner, with Azad as CM and 20 seats in its kitty; the PDP then had 16.
Mehbooba Mufti said, “We will explore possibilities of forming government that will be credible. We are in the process of exploring possibilities...It’s going to take time.”
NC chief Omar Abdullah, the outgoing CM, also said he was not averse to joining hands with the PDP, should “Mufti sahib” (Mehbooba’s father and party founder, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed) take the initiative.
Many central BJP leaders are convinced the party should play the role of a constructive opposition. They argue allying with PDP might lead to both parties losing their voter base. However, another view is that in the long run, the BJP might lose its support in Jammu if it doesn’t form the government. “Our supporters might turn around and tell us, what is the use in voting for us if we couldn’t form the government in such a massive sweep for us in Jammu,” said a BJP source. Yet, a BJP-PDP coalition will be difficult to explain for either of the party to its supporters.
