Arvind Kejriwal & Narendra Modi
It's a development that's likely to be haunting the principal opposition, posing as it does a threat to the proverbial "Modi wave" that was expected to carry the BJP to victory unhindered in 2014. With Kejriwal's rise though, and the odds that his party could garner 20-40 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, all mathematical calculations have been sent into a tizzy.
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Nowhere is the panic about the way AAP could have shaken up and altered the national political setting post the Delhi elections more perceptible than on social media. The BJP which was banking on Modi's charisma, a Congress anti-incumbency and Rahul Gandhi's uninspiring speeches to win votes is suddenly having to contend with an adversary who has captured the nation's imagination almost as affirmatively as Modi has. On digital media, a bastion for Modi enthusiasts and the urban, educated middle class - a constituency that Modi has been trying hard to woo, the Kejriwal emergence has been disruptive.
On instant messaging service WhatsApp, a long message that's doing the rounds proposes to tell us how Arvind Kejriwal is more dangerous than the Congress and how this is all a "big game plan" to keep the BJP out of power in the next LS elections. It goes on to compare Kejriwal to Gandhi who stopped Sardar Patel from becoming PM, paving the way for Nehru instead.
On twitter and facebook meanwhile, there seems to be unmatched scrutiny analyzing AAP's every move and a concentrated attempt to insinuate that Kejriwal is part of a larger Congress ploy to keep the BJP out. If BJP leader Nitin Gadkari alleged that a deal was brokered between AAP and the Congress by an industrialist, Modi batting twitteratti too have been busy hatching other conspiracy theories.
ISLAMISTS IN PAKISTAN LAUNCH ONLINE DONATION CAMPAIGN FOR AAM AADMI PARTY? Anything to defeat Modi? wrote @NaMo4PM
"Mere coincidence that Teesta, Yogendra Yadav, Kejriwal & entire Brigade gunning 4 Modi nurtured by same foreign donor agencies, foundations?" questioned Modi supporter @madhukishwar.
"Every right thinking conscientious citizen needs to be deeply concerned on the subversive potential of AAP" insisted @prasannavishy posting a link to his website which asked centre right thinkers to "turn their attention towards the activities of the (AAP) think-tank and advise political parties like BJP to plan counter strategies."
Hashtags like #AAPtards meanwhile have been trending.
Whatever be the merits or demerits of the pro-Modi camp's arguments against Kejriwal, it is palpable how riled up they are at the progress Kejriwal is making on the national stage. After making headlines for inducting a string of high profile corporate faces, AAP is reported to have started organizing its party in 380 districts and is also expected to start a national enrollment drive before releasing its candidate names later this month.
It's economic policy and manifesto will be released in March and in Modi's home state of Gujarat the party is expected to launch a 'broom yatra' to allegedly expose the Gujarat Chief Minister. Meanwhile miniature kites with Kejriwal plastered on them are reportedly selling like hot cakes in the Modi bastion. Membership enrollments too have soared in states like UP and Bihar where the BJP is known to be making an energetic attempt to make its presence felt.
It's economic policy and manifesto will be released in March and in Modi's home state of Gujarat the party is expected to launch a 'broom yatra' to allegedly expose the Gujarat Chief Minister. Meanwhile miniature kites with Kejriwal plastered on them are reportedly selling like hot cakes in the Modi bastion. Membership enrollments too have soared in states like UP and Bihar where the BJP is known to be making an energetic attempt to make its presence felt.
While criticizing an absence of a clear cut ideology and suggesting that AAP could risk becoming a clone to one of the existing parties, Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times wrote in this paper that ", Modi has not identified the handle by which he can wrench AAP" which has the potential to "significantly damage Modi's prospects because it will take away substantial votes in urban majority seats that were inclined to go Modi's way."
Swaminathan Aiyer in his column titled "Time to think the unthinkable: Could Arvind Kejriwal be the next PM?" for the Economic Times meanwhile suggests that "If the AAP wins 30-40 seats, it may become the biggest constituent of the Third Front, bigger than any regional party. This would give Kejriwal excellent credentials to become prime minister of a Third Front government. He would have not only significant numbers, but strong moral authority too. He would stand out as the man who had toppled Congress, and prevented the BJP from taking its place."
Lack of adequate time and the limitation of the urban vote to swing elections could however limit AAP from making much of a headway says Aiyer.
Predicting electoral outcomes can often be a futile, even dangerous exercise. Is it sanguine editorializing by the national media that is acting as a force multiplier or is AAP really on the way to becoming a national force to reckon with - only time can tell. But one thing is certain - for those in political circles and the media that had dismissed AAP as a mere flash in the pan, the party has achieved the near insurmountable.
Meanwhile, where is Rahul Gandhi amidst all this? Is Kejriwal's rise and his party's reluctance to officially name him the Congress's PM candidate shunning him into oblivion? Not many from Dalal Street or corporate India might have been enthused by AAP's policies, but a lot more of them are becoming increasingly vocal about their anti-Rahul positions.
"#Arvind Kejriwal is talking corruption, #narendramodi is talking development. Rahul Gandhi not totally clear to me" tweeted RPG Enterprises Chairman Harsh Goenka recently.
“If we get a person like Rahul Gandhi who has not really shown any cognizance of the private sector or investment climate, an already troubled economy could be in trouble,” Rajiv Kumar, former chief executive officer of ICRIER told Bloomberg.
The battle lines have strikingly shifted. Make way, Rahul?