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The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seemed headed for a split, with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) apparently on the verge of breaking the long alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party in that state.
Nitish Kumar's core supporters confirmed this and said their government (presently a JD(U)-BJP coalition) would be in no danger, as Kumar also had the support of six independent members in the Legislative Assembly. With 117 MLAs of his own in a House of 243, Kumar will need at least 122 and four Independents are ready to join the government.
Sources told Business Standard that Kumar had called a meeting of senior leaders of the party on Saturday, He has also asked all JD(U) MLAs to be present in Patna on Friday and Saturday. Party seniors say the decision has already been taken and only an announcement is required now. Therefore, the JD(U) ministers and leaders went overboard this morning to denounce Modi and BJP.
"They have given the leadership in the hands of a tainted person," said Narendra Singh, agriculture minister of Bihar, about the BJP," They (BJP) want to continue with fundamentalist politics. This will not be tolerated." Another JD(U) leader , Shivanand Tiwari, called Modi a divisive personality. The attacks became so strong that Kumar had to issue an unofficial gag order later in the evening to restrain party leaders from making any more comments. BJP leaders also retaliated, but with caution. Cooperative Minister in the state, Ramadhir Singh said, "We have elected him (Modi) our leader. We will not go back. We want to continue the coalition."
However, some of its MLAs like Vikram Kunwar came out against the JD(U) and asked the party leadership to break away as soon as possible. The party workers feel the break-up will help the BJP to regain its upper caste voters, who have been unhappy with the Nitish government since the murder of Brahmeshwar Singh, leader of the infamous upper caste militia Ranveer Sena. Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi called a late evening meeting of the core committee of the state party leadership. Even if the break-up seems imminent, neither the JD(U) nor BJP want to be seen as the one who broke the alliance. NDA Chairman L K Advani called both Kumar and JD(U) president Sharad Yadav to reason with them. Now, with Modi becoming the reason for the walkout, the signal is that it can do business with Advani but not Modi.
Wider alliance
The JD(U) is already hard at work to create a new slogan, that India needs a Federal front. JD(U) emissary K C Tyagi was despatched to Kolkata to speak to Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee. And, from Odisha, the ruling Biju Janata Dal's head, Naveen Patnaik, is in touch with Nitish Kumar.
"I have spoken to Nitishji. He feels regional parties should form a federal front," Banerjee said in Kolkata.
She is reported to have told K C Tyagi, "To start with, there should be a kind of eastern front, with the TMC, JD(U) and BJD. We have 53 Lok Sabha MPs together. Then, as the election approaches, we can move forward forming a Federal Front. It will help if the three parties join hands to create pressure on Centre for their demands."
Banerjee is also understood to be in touch with Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh; she spoke recently to his mother, Vijayamma.
In the TMC Facebook page on Monday, Banerjee had stated "time has come" for regional parties to come together to form a Federal front in the Lok Sabha elections, appealing to all non-Congress, non-BJP regional parties to come together. Banerjee added that the Bihar CM said he "would be happy if we can do it with the objective of the common cause of the people."
Tyagi said, "You have heard that she has talked with Naveen Patnaik and Babulal Marandi. We are going to have our party meeting within two or three days. We will respond after that."
Meanwhile, the Congress invited all secular parties to come on board. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath today told reporters, "All secular parties are welcome within the UPA."
Meanwhile, Kiranmoy Nanda, a Samajwadi Party leader from West Bengal and close to Mulayam Singh Yadav, is also likely to meet Mamata this week. Sources suggest the SP is working to strengthen its relationship with the TMC, which took a hit after SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's U-turn during the elections for the President of India on the issue of support to Pranab Mukherjee.
At home, Nitish Kumar will have to hold a Cabinet reshuffle immediately because 11 of the ministers in the Bihar government are from the BJP. The maximum number of ministers the government can have is 36. Kumar will be under pressure to not jus accommodate regions and castes but also members of the Legislative Council. How he will balance these interests remains to be seen.
