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The elections to the Bihar legislative assembly promise to be like nothing before. Enmities have been buried, and new friendships have been forged. Caste calculations are in the works. Huge money is being talked about. Names are being called. Rumour mills are working overtime. The slugfest is all set to turn dirty and personal.
It is a do or die election for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as his Janata Dal (United) was severely mauled in last year's general elections - he must win this time to impose his authority over the party's rank and file. For his friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, this is yet another chance to shed the label of corruption and lawlessness tagged on him.
The election is no less critical for the Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. If it comes to power in Bihar, BJP will be able to improve its presence in the Rajya Sabha. (Its lack of majority in the house affects its ability to push legislative change.) More important, it will test if the NaMo wave is intact or if it has run out of steam. Defeat in Bihar could force BJP to rethink its agenda.
"A fascinating battle is unfolding in Bihar," says one senior BJP leader. "Prime Minister Modi has chosen to make several trips to the poll-bound state and has pitted himself against Nitish Babu. And all this has happened even before the announcement of the election dates."
Recent moves by former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, RJD MP Pappu Yadav and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddhin Owaisi has only queered the pitch: while Manjhi and Yadav have aligned with BJP, Owaisi has decided to contest the elections.
Manjhi (a Mahadalit), Yadav (a Yadav strongman) and Owaisi (easily the tallest Muslim leader in the country today) are expected to eat into the vote bank of the RJD-JD (U)-Congress combine. While Mahadalits are 18 per cent of the state's population, Muslims add up to 17.5 per cent and Yadavs to 14 per cent.
Naturally, the alliance has blamed BJP for these machinations. That may not be entirely untrue: the BJP-led government at the Centre has agreed to provide Z-category (the highest) security cover to Manjhi and Y-category cover to Yadav.
A personal battle
Some have even alleged that the increased communal violence, after BJP and JD (U) broke up in Bihar before last year's general elections, has been engineered to polarise voters along religious lines. The assumption is that religious identity could upset the caste equations.
So far, the biggest player in the battle for Bihar has been none other than Modi. He still commands respect in the state, especially among youths, urban voters and upper castes. "He is our biggest weapon," says another BJP leader. "He is the only one in BJP right now who can take on Nitish and Lalu at the same time. He has better credentials in development than Nitish and he can attack Lalu in his own language."
Modi has made this election his personal battle, given the animosity between Nitish and him. He never misses the chance to invoke the fear of "Jungle Raj" in Bihar if BJP doesn't come to power. Modi's masterstroke was his special package of Rs 165,000 crore for the state, which he claimed would "change the face of Bihar".
It boxed Nitish and Lalu into a corner, and their assertion that the promise was untenable and humiliating, and that Modi "behaved as if he was putting Bihar for auction," sounded hollow. Even if they tried to pick holes in the technical details, they could not discredit the package. In the days to come, they are expected to rubbish it as gimmickry.
Even though the anti-incumbency factor could come into play after ten years of Nitish's rule, what will help him is his image. "Nitish's biggest asset is his reputation as a development man," says a bureaucrat in Patna.
Nitish gathered goodwill from the people by giving them the basic services they were denied earlier: schools with teachers, good roads and electricity (even if for a few hours in a day). He revived moribund government hospitals and improved the law & order situation. There is hardly a voter in Bihar who would say that the situation didn't improve during Nitish's regime.
But people want more, and that's why Modi's package has managed to create a wave.
Clearly, Nitish needs to exploit any chink in Modi's armour. This explains why, after Modi remarked that there was a problem with his political and democratic DNA, Nitish launched a mission to collect hair and nails, and send them to Modi as the state's "DNA sample" (read pride).
Nitish understands that he cannot fight Modi alone and he therefore needs to consolidate votes with partners. Hence, forgetting their past enmity, he joined hands with Lalu. They have agreed to contest on 100 seats each, and have left the remaining 40 for the Congress. (Three have been set aside for the Nationalist Congress Party, which is miffed with this allocation.)
Those involved in the negotiations say it was daunting to arrive at the formula. That perhaps was the easy part of the alliance. When it comes to dividing constituencies and handing out tickets, major fireworks are expected. Signs of that discord are already visible. A few days ago, Lalu's younger son and ticket aspirant from Raghopur constituency Tejaswi Yadav asked, "The JD (U) MLA from Raghopur must tell us what development he has brought to his constituency. I am yet to see any work."
This is hardly the language one uses for one's allies. More bickering could happen in the days ahead. Several MLAs and ticket aspirants have threatened to walk-out if their candidature is rejected. "We still have miles to go to become a natural alliance," accepts an RJD leader.
The minority game
All this while, Lalu has been playing his cards astutely and is leveraging what he knows best: caste alliances. That explains RJD's pitch for publication of the caste census data and revisiting reservation norms on that basis, which has put the saffron party on the defensive.
"Lalu knows that he is no hero of development politics. Therefore, he is leaving no stone unturned to rake up caste-related issues," says a political analyst. Plus, the RJD-JD (U)-Congress alliance hopes that Nitish, as its candidate for chief minister, will fetch the Mahadalit and Muslim votes, while Lalu will bring in the Yadav votes.
However, Pappu Yadav, now firmly in the saffron camp, can create problems for the RJD-JD (U)-Congress alliance in the Seemanchal and Koshi areas. Despite his controversial past, he has emerged as a heavyweight politician in his own right.
The Yadavs, who had their heyday during the Lalu-Rabri regime, have been at the receiving end ever since Nitish took the reins of Bihar in 2005. Their anger against Nitish is deep rooted and it would be a tough task for the RJD voters to side with JD (U) candidates.
With the entry of the firebrand Owaisi, the fight for minority votes is expected to turn fierce. His first visit to Kishanganj on August 16 saw an impressive crowd of 15,000 people. Those people waited for Owaisi since early morning, braving incessant rains and stood firmly on the waterlogged ground. The message was not lost on all: Owaiisi is no pushover.
In his speech, Owaisi hit out at Nitish and Lalu for seeking votes from the minorities yet doing nothing for their uplift. He also sought special package for the Seemanchal region, which comprises four Muslim dominated districts: Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar. Owaisi's plan to field 25 candidates in these districts, which contribute 40 seats in the 243 member state assembly, could be a game changer.
