Psephologists are trying to figure out whether the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will be able to repeat its splendid success in the Delhi Assembly elections in Punjab in early 2017. Punjab is for the first time poised for a triangular contest and the third front that has emerged in the form of the AAP is expected to gain momentum.
Punjab's politics has largely remained bipolar till now. In the 2011 assembly elections, the People's Party of Punjab, a new outfit formed by Manpreet Singh Badal, estranged nephew of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, did not win a single seat. The Akali Dal (Longowal), a breakaway faction of the Shiromani Akali Dal launched in 2004 by Surjit Singh Barnala, and the Lok Bhalai Party founded by Balwant Singh Ramoowalia in 2009 also remained on the fringes.
In contrast, the youth in most of Punjab's districts is inclined towards Arvind Kejriwal, the young leader of the AAP. So far Kejriwal is the face of the AAP in Punjab and the hunt is on for a chief ministerial candidate. Sources says the party tried to rope in Navjot Singh Sidhu, a senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader and a former MP from Amritsar. The AAP also approached Manpreet Badal, but he eventually merged his party with the Congress.
The Lok Sabha election in 2014 was a cakewalk for the AAP in the state and four of its candidates won without extensive mass contact programmes. Punjab is the only state where the AAP won all the seats it contested in 2014.
But the party is cautious this time. It is building its voter base with the help of 100,000 volunteers. The state has been divided into zones corresponding to the 13 parliamentary constituencies. Each zone is divided into nine verticals representing assembly constituencies and each vertical into three circles. The smallest unit of voters is a cluster of 15 houses, says the AAP MP from Sangrur, Bhagwant Mann. "We aim to win over 100 of the 117 assembly seats in the state," he asserts.
Fund raising will be on the pattern of the Delhi elections. Dinners were organised at Bathinda and Jalandhar during Kejriwal's recent visit. The AAP is also open to transparent financial support from the Punjabi diaspora in the UK, Canada and Australia. Those joining the AAP from the Congress and the SAD have been inducted as volunteers. Those who work hardest and are popular at the grassroots will be fielded as candidates, says Mann.
The opposition SAD-BJP and the Congress claim fissures are evident in the AAP and two of its MPs, Dharamvir Gandhi from Patiala and Harinder Singh Khalsa from Fatehgarh Sahib, have been suspended. The convener of the AAP in Punjab, Sucha Singh Chhotepur, does not have a personality to draw voters. Insiders say a hierarchical structure like that in the SAD and Congress is not possible in the AAP because the aspiration for party posts among volunteers is very high.
On the flip side, the the SAD-BJP alliance after 10 years of governance faces a strong anti-incumbency effect. The proliferating network of drug-peddlers in the state and their connections with senior SAD leaders is all too evident. Recent incidents of sacrilege have alienated the loyal panthik vote bank as the SAD failed to combat the insult to Sikh scriptures.
The Congress has improved its chances after naming Amarinder Singh, deputy leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha and former Punjab chief minister, as president of the Punjab Congress. Manpreet Badal's entry into the Congress may also help revive the party in the Malwa belt, a Badal family bastion.
A leading political scientist in Punjab University who does not wish to be named says no political party has on its agenda the revival of agriculture, a perspective on building better human resources and the uplift of Dalits. These are the core issues that affect the state's voters, according to him.
Election rallies addressed by leaders of three parties on Thursday on the occasion of Maghi mela at Muktsar were heavy on rhetoric. An enthusiastic crowd and a high turnout at Kejriwal's meeting set off alarm bells for veterans in the Congress and the SAD-BJP who could not hold the crowd till the end of their rallies on the same day.
Punjab's economy is thriving on remittances and the contribution of industry is sliding, says an industrialist in Ludhiana. "We do not expect much from the AAP. They seem to have no vision. With right leadership and vision the AAP can sweep the poll," he adds.
